Outside the Box, May 2016

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At Last, Someone Apologizes for Deflation

May 18, 2016

Much of the world is in the grip of deflation and negative interest rates, with all kinds of negative consequences. Yet no one takes responsibility. Who do we blame? How do we get them to change their ways?

I’m happy to report that someone is finally stepping up. The New York Times reported this morning that Akagi Nyugyo, a Japanese ice cream company, is airing a televised apology for raising its prices. Grim-faced executives and workers face the camera as a subtly humorous folk song plays and...

Central Banks and the Rise of Extremism

May 11, 2016

Do you feel as if you’re the rope in a tug of war? That’s the closest analogy I can come up with to describe what’s going on inside my own head – and in the world. And at the last few conferences where I’ve spoken, talking with the participants afterwards, I’ve found that my feeling is widely shared. Our sense of direction, the sense of knowing where we’re going, is gone. To analogize some more, I told a friend last night that I feel as if we have slipped our anchor and are adrift on the ocean...

Where’s the Beef? “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”

May 4, 2016

I have long been a critic of government inflation statistics. Not so much with regard to the methodology they use, but because the measure of “average” inflation across the broad economy doesn’t really describe the inflation that the majority of Americans experience. I’ve written about that at length in several letters.

Now my good friend Rob Arnott, along with his associate Lillian Wu, presents us with a research paper that lays out what inflation actually looks like for most Americans – and...