Outside the Box, November 2016

Do Larger Federal Budget Deficits Stimulate Spending? Depends on Where the Funding Comes From

November 30, 2016

In the true spirit of stepping outside the box, today’s OTB is a counterintuitive argument against the concept that fiscal deficits and/or infrastructure spending constitute effective economic stimulus. It comes from Paul Kasriel, who was one of my favorite reads when he was at Northern Trust, and I am glad he continues to write in “retirement.” He always has a way of looking at things from different angles than everybody else does.

Paul is a self-confessed reformed Keynesian. He likens his...

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Stronger than Oak

November 23, 2016

Today, for your pre-Thanksgiving delectation, I have for you an Outside the Box with deep roots in my West Texas homeland. It comes from fellow Texan Danielle DiMartino Booth, who has graced these pages more than once this year. You’ll recall that she was a key advisor on monetary policy to Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher until his retirement last year, whereupon Danielle struck out on her own (and landed here). She has a book coming out early next year, called Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on...

Hoisington Interim Update and Comment

November 16, 2016

Time flies. It seems like only hours ago that I was sending you the Jeffrey Tucker “This Could Be Our 1989” article on Sunday. Now it’s Wednesday and I’m still plugging away on the detailed post-election analysis I promised you. Many of you are eager to read it, too, and said so in comments you sent. I’m finding that the story is full of nuances that I must explain in depth, lest someone misunderstand me.

I want my thoughts to be very clear, so I’m going to take another day to wrap up....

The Day After

November 9, 2016

We had a very late night in the Mauldin household, as I’m sure many of you did. I truly was unsure what to expect from this election, and I was as surprised as anyone when the Trump victory started taking shape. At our election party there were many of my neighbors who were ardent Hillary supporters, and they were shocked, as was much of the national media.

The real losers? Polling companies and those who create models built around them. It turns out that when you really need a poll to work,...

The Origins of American Incivility and Fear

November 2, 2016

My friends and associates know that it is very rare that I am sitting at my desk at 4 AM, as I was this morning. I am not an early morning person. But every now and then I wake up and the mind turns on, and rather than fight it, I go sit at my desk. And almost immediately this morning, I was greeted with this paragraph from my friend Michael Lewitt in his latest letter:

The 2016 presidential election is carving deep scars on the American soul. The country is on the cusp of a constitutional...