Outside the Box, October 2017

Is the Bubble Economy Set to Burst?

October 25, 2017

My friend Andy Xie, based in Shanghai, is a very independent-minded investment analyst and economist. With a PhD from MIT, he has been at the IMF and was a star economist for the Morgan Stanley Asia-Pacific group. His ofttimes bearish calls on various parts of the Chinese economy have elicited a lot of criticism from Chinese officials and retail investors. I have been on the stage with him several times, both on the same side of debates and on opposite sides – he is a formidable opponent! We do...

Just own the damn robots.

October 18, 2017

If you spend any time watching CNBC, you know who “Downtown Josh Brown” is. He is a thoughtful analyst on the markets and someone I consider a friend. He writes a blog called The Reformed Broker that I think can properly be characterized as irreverent.

His latest letter is an Outside the Box way of thinking about the current bull market. I’m not sure whether he is offering this tongue in cheek or not, but he is speaking to the same thing that I’ve been talking about for quite some time: the...

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook, Third Quarter 2017

October 11, 2017

Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management do not exactly get us off to a hopeful start in their third-quarter review, today’s Outside the Box:

The worst economic recovery of the post-war period will continue to be restrained by a consumer sector burdened by paltry income growth, a low and falling saving rate, and an increasingly restrictive Federal Reserve policy. Additionally, with the extremely high level of U.S. government debt and deteriorating fiscal situation, the...

The Catalan Question and the Future of Europe

October 4, 2017

It is 5 AM in Lisbon, and I am sitting in an airport lounge with wifi, writing this week’s OTB on my iPad, clumsily. GaveKal has written a very candid analysis of the Catalonia vote/debacle, which was a hot topic at the conference where I was speaking – Spain is right next door. There were numerous past and current foreign ministers and other parliamentary leaders here, all very pro-EU, and they were aghast at Rajoy’s heavy-handed response.

Howewver, they all agreed that Catalonia could never...