Outside the Box, April 2018

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Outside the Box was retired on April 25, 2018, to make way for the new and improved premium research service, Over My Shoulder.

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Us vs. Them

April 25, 2018

This is the final Outside the Box. It is a little emotional to me, like parting with an old friend. How can one possibly sum up almost 14 years? Well, quite simply, you can’t. I would like to say, however, that it is been my extraordinary pleasure to send out more than 600 issues of Outside the Box, and I sincerely hope they helped your research and thinking.

While reminiscing on Outside the Box this week, I meandered through the archives and stopped at the very first issue, sent on September...

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook, First Quarter 2018

April 18, 2018

Lacy Hunt is in the very top rank of US economists. He would have made an excellent Fed chairman, if you ask me (no one did who mattered); but he goes on holding down the fort, along with partner Van Hoisington, at Hoisington Investment Management in Austin; and so you and I continue to have the benefit of Lacy and Van’s quarterly updates, which I always feature here in Outside the Box.

Today’s is an amazing piece of academic economic analysis. Lacy and Van kick it off with this trenchant...

Fed “Policy Mistakes” – a View from Across the Pond

April 11, 2018

I have talked at length in recent months about the well-proven limitations of Federal Reserve modeling of the economy. (See for instance “Data-Dependent ... on Imaginary Data.”) And come to think of it, I’ve been on their case for years. The Fed’s predictive capacities are demonstrably abysmal. In today’s Outside the Box, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the intrepid international business editor of the Daily Telegraph of London, joins the fray.

Ambrose’s criticism of the Fed’s current posture on...

Is Risk-Free Really Risk-Free?

April 4, 2018

In Outside the Box I try to bring you ideas that are, well, outside the box. This is increasingly important as we all find ourselves locked into confined social, political, and economic spaces that prevent us from seeing different perspectives. Often those perspectives are important, and sometimes they’re critical.

If you're looking for the 'next Bitcoin'... You're missing the bigger picture.

Today we will go even further outside the box than usual and consider a thought that is practically unspeakable to many. Is short-term US Treasury debt really “risk-free,” as...