New readers to my musings often find it interesting, when they meet me in person, to find me quite an optimistic person, given the nature of my current predictions about the economy. And regarding the short term, defined as less than five years, my writing is admittedly less than sanguine. We do have some problems that are not easily dealt with. And even longer-term, those of a bearish natural disposition can find reasons a-plenty to tone it down.
But five years (at least at my age) is not all that long. One way or another we will get through the current mess. My studies on the nature of progress in a number of fields give me a rather optimistic longer-term slant on life, and most especially in biotechnology. Long-time readers know of my interest in the potential for biotechnology to be completely transformational and disruptive (in a positive way) to society. It is one of the few places I am "long" and willing to get even more long.
Today's Outside the Box is from a source that is no stranger to my regular readers. Pat Cox called last week and told me about an amazing announcement that was made public last Friday, so we are almost "breaking news" here this week. BioTime (BTX) has announced the ability to detect most cancers with a simple blood test that detects markers. This holds the prospect that within a very few years we will all routinely get a blood test for cancer as part of our regular blood work, allowing for very early detection. And as Pat notes, cancer becomes far more treatable if detected early.
As Pat and I talked, I asked him to give us an update on the BioTime story but also on the state of some of the really promising cancer cures. And let me note, these are but a few. There are literally dozens, if not hundreds, of real potential cures. We do live in remarkable times. Comments in the text below in brackets [ ] are mine.
Pat is one of my favorite sources for new, transformational technology. We talk regularly and compare notes. Pat (like me) likes to look over the horizon and think about what is coming. The companies he writes about are typically early-stage research and development plays, in a variety of fields (not just biotech – last month he was writing about robotics!).
You can subscribe to his letter by going to http://www.PatCoxLetter. Warning: his publisher likes rather aggressive marketing, but I just like his letter and research.
Note: I have invested (for quite some time now) in some of the companies he mentions below or have associations with them that I note in the copy. And some I have no knowledge of.) I have not done any transactions in the last few months and will not do anything for at least two weeks. And do NOT chase these stocks. They are typically very small-cap with smaller volumes, and are research and development companies with no guarantees of success. Do your homework, and if you buy then do it for the long term.
I do comment below on one private firm that some of you who sit on foundations and charities that focus on cancer and heath care might want to look into.
Now let's take a look at what Pat and I sincerely hope is the future.
Your planning to live a lot longer than you think analyst,
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
When the second stimulus bill passed in February, 2009, I explained to my readers that the "crowding out effect" would guarantee its failure. I took no pleasure in predicting accurately that increased government borrowing would crowd out private investment in innovation, from which flows economic and employment growth.
I bring this up simply because I have extraordinarily good news regarding cancer therapeutics, and…