Outside the Box

Der Spiegel Interview with George Soros

August 15, 2011

This week's Outside the Box is in the tradition of showing the other side of the argument. Normally, anything George Soros says or does politically has my blood pressure up about 20 points. Yet, I posted another piece of his today in Over My Shoulder – and then ran across this longer piece from Der Spiegel. Note this is from a dedicated Europhile wanting to save the euro. He succintly outlines what must be done if it is to be saved, and does it as well as anyone. (I know that among my readers there are both likers and haters of Soros, but as an observer of markets he is to be respected. And this is an article in which his acumen is in evidence.

I refer you to last week's regular letter (one of my more important ones: http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts/the-beginning-of-the-endgame) and also to the Outside the Box piece I passed on from Michael Lewis, in which he points out that to survive, the rest of Europe must learn to behave more like Germans. This is the great objection of the euro-skeptics, since the rest of Europe does not want to be like Germans. But Soros is right to some extent when he says, "There is simply no alternative. If the euro were to break up, it would cause a banking crisis that would be totally outside the control of the financial authorities. So it would push not only Germany, not only Europe, but also the whole world into conditions very reminiscent of the Great Depression in the 1930s, which was also caused by a banking crisis that was out of control."

We find ourselves in a binary world. Either Europe goes to a fiscal union with the various countries losing control of their budgets, or the Eurozone breaks up. As I recently wrote, we must not underestimate the commitment of the European elites to do whatever it takes to hold their project together. Neither must we underestimate the ability of voters to change their leaders. This is a very volatile situation with far more implications than our subprime problem.

I continue to say that a euro crisis will lead to a recession (or worse) in the US. Attention must be paid. Soros lays out the Euro-elite agenda. I suggest you read.

Your euro-skeptic analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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Der Spiegel Interview with George Soros

'You Need This Dirty Word, Euro Bonds'

In a SPIEGEL interview, billionaire investor George Soros criticizes Germany's lack of leadership in the euro zone, arguing that Berlin must dictate to Europe the solution to the currency crisis. He also argues in favor of the creation of euro bonds as a way out of the turbulence.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Soros, we currently see a global banking crisis, a currency crisis…

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Evandro Menezes

Aug. 21, 2011, 2:56 p.m.

I’ll add just one thing that is missing from Soros’ worldview and from some of the fine comments here: man is master of the economy.  The economy is to serve man, not the other way around as Soros implicitly thinks.  All that he’s saying is backed by one thing only: the fruits of man’s labor, for generations to come.  In his view, the European “authorities” (i.e., those with the power of violence to enforce their edicts) should just serve their majority stakeholders, financiers like Soros himself.

Soros is a technocrat fox meddling in how the hen-house is run.  Thank goodness Europe is still a democracy.  Warts and all, democracy is the only hope of the common man to draw the line on tyrants like Soros one day.

Tom Jones A Foundling

Aug. 18, 2011, 1:24 p.m.

This is one of the most insightful comments I’ve read about the Europe situation. Thanks Soros, let’s hope the leadership in Europe is listening.

paul vreymans

Aug. 17, 2011, 6:07 p.m.

Coming from the mind of someone who once broke the ERM (Euroâ??s failed predecessor) and nearly emptied the coffers of the Bank Of England, Sorosâ?? appeal to Europeâ??s politicians to save the Euro looks rather suspicious.

To my opinion, the Euro, just as all its predecessors, is systemically flawed and unsalvageable.

The Maastricht Convergence Criteria obviously were insufficient to assure the adequate convergence of needed for a monetary union. For a monetary union to be sustainable the member states need comparable productivity growth rates. When productivities grow apart, low productive member states soon become uncompetitive leading to ever larger trade imbalances.

Even before itâ??s launch, Nobel Prize Laureate Milton Friedman has warned for the systemic flaws of the Euro project: the excessive disparity of its economies and disparate exposure to external shocks would cause the Euro experiment to collapse at the first serious disturbing event. Three years in the banking crisis, Friedmanâ??s prophecy is now becoming true.

Eurobonds obviously cannot remediate the systemic flaw of Eurolandâ??s diverging productivity levels.
These productivity gaps will continue to grow to an unsustainable level till Euro falls apart anyway. It’s only a matter of time. Eurobonds may postpone the break-up by a couple of years at the best.

Eurobonds are a trap of Brusselsâ?? unelected Eurocrats to step by step subject all Euro-citizens to a one size fits all economic policy that fits no-one en that no-one wants.

The transfers from North to South associated with the Eurobonds construction amount to throwing good money after bad: resources which the Germans, Fins, Dutch or the French could have used in their own countries to finance healthy productive projects are squandered to finance consumer-credit, welfare spending and unproductive projects in the PIIGS.

Fundamentally such transfers lead to sub-optimal allocation of scarce resources and massive reduction of overall growth of the EU. Moreover the moral hazard of unearned transfers also lead to a massive incentive traps for all productive forces and encourage irresponsible policies in the receiving nations, making such transfers unsustainable in the long run.

I dare not even think of the idea Soros could have an eye on the coffers of the ECB.

Paul Vreymans â?? http://workforall.net

Rodney Smith

Aug. 17, 2011, 12:20 a.m.

The U.S. Federal Government has had three years of stimulus spending that has only produced more unemployment, downgraded reemployment and continued deficit spending. Our President is currently campaigning for bigger deficits and against budget compromise.  Keynes has failed the 21st Century Democrats just as he failed the 1930’s Democrats lead by FDR. The United States is now in a race with Europe to the bottom of the pit.

As for Europe, Euro Bonds will only lead to further evaporation of German’s retirement savings, unless the deficit (spend more than they produce) nations make big sacrifices against their standards of living. This will not happen with a wave of a hand but with an iron fist. This requires a clever and trustworthy negotiator.  Europe is dying for a super negotiator that is neither tainted by European banks nor by labor unions.

Matthew Noller

Aug. 16, 2011, 6:27 p.m.

I wanted to make an objective, non-partisan point that few people seem to grasp.  We started the 20th century in the West with universal suffrage (EVERYONE could suddenly vote).  It took several decades for voters to comprehend that they could indeed vote themselves much more than Roman “bread and circuses” - thus the Welfare State was born.  It didn’t take long for the masses to feel entitled to Entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, welfare, free schooling and healthcare, pensions, etc.)  The way the Welfare State was designed relied on many young people working and paying taxes and Central Banks to engineer inflation into the system, much like a Ponzi Scheme.  By 2050, OVER HALF THE POPULATION OF THE EU COUNTRIES WILL BE OVER 60 and the Ponzi Scheme will self-destruct.  The immigrants to the U.S. largely immigrated here BECAUSE OF THE WELFARE STATE, unlike previous waves of immigrants who came for opportunity to work. This is only human nature, not because they are bad people.  The Welfare State over the next few decades is simply unsustainable and will collapse as we know it, causing great turmoil as it slowly crumbles.  Politicians and people like George Soros are simply lying to you.  The London riots is just the tip of the iceberg.  The more immigrants you import to prop it up and the more government borrowing and spending you create, the worse the turmoil will be.

Steve Herr

Aug. 16, 2011, 4:26 p.m.

How can you argue with a guy who has made billions without ever producing anything.  He is a successful observer of people and society and has the riches to prove it.  He is right on when he says that stimulus is only successful when it essentially an investment.  Giving payroll tax holidays, tax cuts, and extending unemployment benefits will not fix the problem, we have tried that and it has failed.  Our problem is not just that we run a deficit, it is that we do it for all the wrong things.  We spend more money on defense than all the other countries in the world combined but our roads and bridges are falling apart and our kids aren’t receiving a quality education.  We spend more money on health care than any other developed country and yet our people are no healthier than in other countries.  We have been doing the same things for the last 40 years and expecting different results.  That is the definition of insanity.

DAVID MCCULLAM

Aug. 16, 2011, 12:50 p.m.

Soros speaking in platitudes sounds like someone trying to cover their ass.  Would be interesting to know his exposure re the Euro debacle.  “Establish fiscal rules that will insure the solvency of each member” has been a cornerstone of the EU since it’s inception but obviously there is no means to enforce this idea, thus the present problem.  So let Greece go, and Ireland when their constituancy goes bonkers, followed by Spain and Italy and maybe France.  And Merkel has yet to hear from her citizens .

Mike McBride

Aug. 16, 2011, 10:07 a.m.

Mr. Soros is right about one thing: the excess in public, private and individual debt that exists today is a problem which began 25 years ago, and I would argue quite a bit longer. Despite many boom and busts in the markets over that time, it continued to escalate. Not enough time has passed since October 2008 to completely reverse this problem. Too many years of low interest rates coupled with credit which was to easy to obtain in both the corporate and individual sectors fueled a debt boom for bigger houses, more expensive cars, and everything else that goes along with a higher standard of living which was the goal for too many Americans. There is nothing wrong with this goal as a general principle, except when it goes to excess. Savings rates actually went negative in past years. Our grandparents would be shocked at our behavior, to say the least. This was the same in Europe. And like the USA did, Europe has also gone gone down the slippery slope of bank and sovereign bailouts to avert what they considered would be a catastrophe of systematic failure across the Union. The problem is that “failure” must be allowed to occur in any market-based free economy. A country must be allowed to fail just as a business must be allowed to fail in the corporate world. Otherwise, it is impossible to restart properly. Failure means enduring economic pain, implementing massive restructurings, then moving on to a better life. But, only when an entity goes through this process, will the citizens and leaders (1) learn the appropriate lessons, and (2) not make the same mistakes again. Piling on more debt and postponing the ‘day of failure’ is not the answer and most likely makes the underlying problem worse. There are thousands and thousands of successful corporate restructurings over many years in the USA and I suppose also in Europe. And past sovereign defaults (Russia and Argentina come to mind) have also been accomplished in the marketplace. World markets and economies moved on a lot quicker then they are now. When the financial marketplace understands the problem and can frame a solution, they will structure the appropriate response. They will pick up the pieces, even though there are fewer of them. However, when so much uncertainty surrounds the problem and the markets cannot decipher the real facts, then they will have no confidence that they can solve the problem. I hope Mr. Soros s correct in his opinions of a ‘united Europe’ under a common set of fiscal rules and regulations, coupled with a sharing of debt through EuroBonds, but I am very skeptical. There were many critics of the Euro at formation on the basis of divergent fiscal ideologies across the euro countries, and it would seem they have been proven correct. In fact, certain aspects of the eurozone pact have been continually violated almost since inception. While European countries obviously share many common interests, namely a currency, cross trading and an entire continent, they are a collection of divergent economies and cultures with their own individual histories. Bringing them even closer together would seem to be a very difficult task in my opinion. And, as I have commented on before, asking the German citizens to essentially underwrite the rest of Europe, does not seem fair and just. It is rewarding failure at the expense of the successful. In my opinion, creating a common currency in the Euro was a mistake (obviously said in hindsight, but I felt the same way when it occurred merely as an interested lay person) without completing the loop in establishing common fiscal regulations. Now, it is a shame that in order to fix it the consensus seems to feel that we have to allow the weak to infect the strong. It just doesn’t seem right. It didn’t make sense then, and it still doesn’t.
Mike McBride
August 16, 2011

William Krause

Aug. 16, 2011, 9:35 a.m.

Soros makes some very good points!  Using monetary strategies like QE failed as stimulus because the new money was not put to productive use as there was no private demand for investment spending in a sluggish economy.  Soros rightly points out that fiscal stimulus that promotes productivity - i.e., creates jobs - was the only way to avoid a double dip recession we are probably already in.  The only way to reduce the deficit is to get the economy moving and the only way to do that is for the government to be a catalyst of job creation which of course means more gov’t spending and not less.  Again Soros is right to condemn Obama for not providing an alternative vision to the ideologically driven demand for gov’t spending cuts in this time of recession.  The double dip is on and that means even more unemployment, less tax receipts and more unproductive gov’t spending in the form of automatic stablizers (i.e., unemployment cheques).  John you were right about the Muddle Through economy.  The tradegy of this will be a lost generation of young people not only in the US but in Britain and mainland Europe as well.

Grover Paulsen

Aug. 16, 2011, 9:21 a.m.

John:

Thanks for improving the global awareness of this interview and the ideas presented.

Ths interview provides great clarity and insight into the problems of Europe. However, we have to recognize the point of view of the story teller, George Soros, who is dedicated to a socialist/Marxist agenda.
The insights and solutions suggested here should be tempered by the principles of freedom and capital. Where are the leaders who will carry this fight?
The voters in Iceland, and the voters (and government) of Ireland seem to have made their choices clear

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