Outside the Box

Der Spiegel Interview with George Soros

August 15, 2011

This week's Outside the Box is in the tradition of showing the other side of the argument. Normally, anything George Soros says or does politically has my blood pressure up about 20 points. Yet, I posted another piece of his today in Over My Shoulder – and then ran across this longer piece from Der Spiegel. Note this is from a dedicated Europhile wanting to save the euro. He succintly outlines what must be done if it is to be saved, and does it as well as anyone. (I know that among my readers there are both likers and haters of Soros, but as an observer of markets he is to be respected. And this is an article in which his acumen is in evidence.

I refer you to last week's regular letter (one of my more important ones: http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts/the-beginning-of-the-endgame) and also to the Outside the Box piece I passed on from Michael Lewis, in which he points out that to survive, the rest of Europe must learn to behave more like Germans. This is the great objection of the euro-skeptics, since the rest of Europe does not want to be like Germans. But Soros is right to some extent when he says, "There is simply no alternative. If the euro were to break up, it would cause a banking crisis that would be totally outside the control of the financial authorities. So it would push not only Germany, not only Europe, but also the whole world into conditions very reminiscent of the Great Depression in the 1930s, which was also caused by a banking crisis that was out of control."

We find ourselves in a binary world. Either Europe goes to a fiscal union with the various countries losing control of their budgets, or the Eurozone breaks up. As I recently wrote, we must not underestimate the commitment of the European elites to do whatever it takes to hold their project together. Neither must we underestimate the ability of voters to change their leaders. This is a very volatile situation with far more implications than our subprime problem.

I continue to say that a euro crisis will lead to a recession (or worse) in the US. Attention must be paid. Soros lays out the Euro-elite agenda. I suggest you read.

Your euro-skeptic analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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Der Spiegel Interview with George Soros

'You Need This Dirty Word, Euro Bonds'

In a SPIEGEL interview, billionaire investor George Soros criticizes Germany's lack of leadership in the euro zone, arguing that Berlin must dictate to Europe the solution to the currency crisis. He also argues in favor of the creation of euro bonds as a way out of the turbulence.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Soros, we currently see a global banking crisis, a currency crisis…

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Barry Rose

Aug. 16, 2011, 8:43 a.m.

John - Interesting article & observations, and not sure that I fully understand the concept of how Euro Bonds would be successful… who would issue then, who would back them, and how each country would be accountable in the process while maintaining their sovereignty.  Soros says “That is why you need to establish fiscal rules that will ensure the solvency of every member.”  How can that be done under the current EZ structure without each country becoming a ‘state’ under a ‘federal’ government and surrendering, to a large degree, that same sovereignty they seek to maintain?  It can’t be as simple as just granting the ECB much greater powers over the entire financial system.  Who would police the system, to ‘ensure the solvency of every member?  Given Germany’s checkered 20th century history, would Europe allow Germany that much power over them?  Makes my head hurt….

barry fay

Aug. 16, 2011, 8:26 a.m.

how funny that the best article I´ve read on this site comes from Soros! So maligned and then this astute analysis. Maybe people should pay a little more attention to his politics - but that would go against the Michelle Bachman, Sarah Palin trend!

Karlheinz Ramm

Aug. 16, 2011, 3:09 a.m.

Soros says that Soros would have made a better job than Obama, Merkel and the one or other central bank head. Under his leadership Germany would be able to ‘save’ the Euro (whatever this means) and China would save the world. Must be a great man. Thank God there are at the moment about a billion people like him around who would have known better and think they know how to save the world. If only I knew whom to pick for world dictatorship. Maybe some years from now someone will tell me who would have been the one. If I should make a guess Soros will be a hot candidate for this.

John Seater

Aug. 16, 2011, 1:10 a.m.

A lot of what Mr. Soros says about Europe *seems* sensible, but I have not followed the news closely enough to be sure.  What I am sure about is that his understanding of macroeconomics in general and the US situation in particular are woefully incorrect.  In light of that, I maintain considerable skepticism that his discussion of Europe is reliable.

He likes Keynesian economics.  Too bad because Keynesian economics is largely nonsense.  Even the latest reincarnations have no real foundation in microeconomic behavior and no empirical support.  After decades of research, real business cycle theory with Calvo pricing and other silliness is fading from popularity because it is an empirical failure.  No theoretical foundation and no empirical support adds up to a waste of time.  Moreover, even on its own terms Keynesian economics makes no sense.  One of the greatest experts on Keynesian economics is Robert Barro, who with Herschel Grossman figured out about 40 years ago what Keynesian economics actually was about.  Barro then went on to put Keynesian economics in a consistent framework and estimated a government purchases multiplier of about 0.6 (not the Ponzi-like values of 1.5 or higher that the President’s Council of Economic Advisors was touting).  Each dollar of Keynesian stimulus would raise output by about 60 cents.  The only reason it raises output at all is that it reduces people’s wealth (because the true cost of government is what it spends, not what it calls taxes) and induces them to work more to replace the income lost to the government.  Because people always had the opportunity to work more in the absence of the higher spending but chose not to, this induced effect unambiguously reduces welfare.

The Obama stimulus plan was bad even on Keynesian terms.  At least 2/3 of the spending was on transfers.  Even a die-hard old Keynesian, including Keynes himself were he alive, would tell you that transfer programs do not stimulate the economy.  You need purchases for that.

Standard Keynesian theory typically ignores the funding requirements and the effects of higher tax rates to pay for the spending.  Eventually, tax rates must rise.  That damps the economy.  I could go on, but it’s not worth it.

To argue that the Republicans will be the cause of the double dip, if there is one, is silly.  The real problem is the prospect of much higher taxes together with the enormous new regulatory burdens of Obamacare and the EPA, combined with the uncertainty caused by abrogating legal contracts (the bonds held by the creditors of GM and Chrysler), the bashing of enterprise and business executives, the complete failure to take care of the toxic assets that helped start this mess, the other complete failure to fix the various laws and regulations that channel too much money into the housing market and especially into the hands of people not fit to hold mortgages, and the threat to increase taxes on “the rich” broadly defined to include everybody making more than about $200K per year.

If Mr. Soros gets that much wrong about the US, which is the place he should know the most about, why should we have any faith that he knows any better what he is talking about when it comes to Europe?

Bud Wood

Aug. 16, 2011, 12:05 a.m.

For the last decade, we have been warned of disastrous consequences if the public did not save the banks, save General Motors, win the war (or wars), raise the debt ceiling, etc., etc.  Now, we are again warned that the world will end if “Euro Bonds” are not put in place and/or other crises are addressed.

By extrapolating these disastrous consequences, it’s evident that sooner or later the world as we know it will end.  So let’s all have one big banquet on the remaining “seed corn” and then go our individual ways in scratching out our livelihoods in the resulting ruins.

Big has been a disaster; let’s try small again.  It worked pretty well for centuries.

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