Outside the Box

Inflation, Bond Yields, And The Market

John Mauldin

November 13, 2006

Today's "Outside the Box" will be a combination of 2 different writings. The 1st is an email that I received from Research Affiliates Chairman Rob Arnott in response to my letter last Friday, "Honey, I Created a Bubble." The 2nd is the latest article by the well-known fund manager, John Hussman. Upon reading both commentaries, I was struck by the similarity between the two. It behooves us to pay attention when two very intelligent gentlemen that both actively (and successfully!) manage billions of dollars are marching to the beat of the same drum.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with Rob and John, let me say that both have stellar credentials. Rob is Chairman of Research Affiliates where he manages a multi-billion fund for PIMCO. In addition, he is editor of the Financial Analysts Journal and creator of a new index fund concept. John is the President of Hussman Investment Trust where he manages the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund - HSTRX and the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund - HSGFX.

In their commentaries below, both Rob and John take a look at what inflation and bond yields mean for the market. I strongly recommend that you read each piece thoroughly and hope that you will find them to be "outside the box."

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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Inflation, Bond Yields, And The Market

By Rob Arnott and John Hussman

From Rob Arnott comes this email:

John,

Nice report, as usual. When much of the financial community was panicked about 1% inflation heading to 0%, I moved the All Asset Fund to 65% in TIPS and Commodities. Why?! The four best predictors of inflation, in order of effectiveness are:

  • Real Short Rates. Below zero, look for reflation. Above 2%, look for…

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