Today's "Outside the Box" will feature an essay by good friend David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors. In his article, David discusses what the development of a global economy means for currencies and the financial markets. He distills the foreign exchange markets into 4 major countries and explains both the policies and risks faced by the central banks of these nations, and how they affect you.
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors (www.cumber.com) in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. David's articles and financial market comments have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, and other publications. He has also appeared on CNN, CNBC, and Bloomberg TV. David is also one of the organizer's of the annual Shadow Fed fishing weekend each summer which I am privileged to get to attend.
I hope that you find this article to be both educational and thought provoking.
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
BOJ, BOE, ECB & the FED: It's The Real Interest Rate That Counts!
If you want to understand financial markets and global economics, it's the real interest rate that counts.
First a definition from Wikipedia: The "real interest rate" is the nominal rate of interest, adjusted for compounding, minus the inflation rate. Since the inflation rate over the course of a loan is not known initially, volatility in…