Outside the Box

Pictures of a mania? - US Housing

John Mauldin

July 4, 2005

Once again we look at one of my favorite analysts and behavioral finance thinker, James Montier of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London. James wrote a fascinating book several years ago called "Behavioural Finance: A User's Guide" and puts out ongoing research like the one we will enjoy today. Long time readers will recognize the name because I have discussed many of his ideas in my weekly letter "Thoughts From the Frontline," my book "Bull's Eye Investing" and in "Outside the Box."

This report by James explores whether there is a bubble in the US housing market. He has pulled together data from numerous sources and gives his conclusion that there is a definite bubble. In fact he does not understand how others like myself could argue otherwise and that is why it was picked for this weeks Outside the Box.

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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Pictures of a mania? - US Housing

By James Montier, June 20, 2005

First, let me confess my ignorance, I know very little about housing. However, I do know something about bubbles and something about psychology. The debate over the possibility of a US housing bubble raging in almost every paper, and even within the exalted shrine of the Federal Reserve Board, has prompted me to take a cursory glance at the housing market…

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