Outside the Box

Stay Out of the ROOM

February 21, 2011

One of my favorite analysts is Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. We used to get together a whole lot more when he lived in Dallas, but he has since moved to the wilds of Oregon. Ed’s first book, Unexpected Returns, is a classic work that I think is a must-read for all stock market investors.

And now he favors us with yet another book, called Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights, in which he takes on the mostly silly research, done by so many analysts, that purports to show what an investor can expect to make from his retirement portfolio over time. I can’t tell you how disastrous this simplistic analysis can be for retirees.

This week’s Outside the Box is an excerpt from this latest book.

From Amazon:

“Probable Outcomes continues the Crestmont Research tradition of full-color charts and graphs that enable investors and advisors to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of the stock market. The unique combination of investment science and investment art explores the market from several perspectives, and addresses the implications for a broad range of investors. Ed Easterling delivers an insightful analysis of the likely course for the stock market over the 2010 decade. Investors and advisors will benefit from this timely outlook and its message of reasonable expectations and value-added investing. This essential resource provides a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles that drive the stock market. Based on years of research, Probable Outcomes offers sensible conclusions that will empower you to take action, guide your investment choices during the current period of below-average returns, and allow you to invest with confidence, whatever your financial strategy.”

I can’t recommend this book strongly enough. If you are retiring or thinking about doing so and think you can safely take 5% a year, please, please read this book. You can get it out www.Amazom.com/probable (http://www.amazon.com/Probable-Outcomes-Ed-Easterling/dp/1879384825)

And now let’s turn to Ed’s insights.

Your starting to feel human again analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

subscribers@mauldineconomics.com

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