Keynesian Confusion
November 1, 2010
Michael Lewitt is one of the most provocative writers I know. He consistently gives me something to chew on with his monthly letter. How he comes up with all those quotes (usually from sources I have never read but should have) amazes me. He has a unique view of the markets as he run Collateralized Debt Obligation funds and really understand the nitty-gritty of the bond and credit markets.
His work is subscription only, but he has graciously allowed me to use his latest piece as this week’s Outside the Box. For those interested in subscribing, you can go to his website at www.hcmmarketletter.com.
And if you haven’t already voted in the US, then do so. I am somewhat of a political junkie. My normal election night routine is stay up watching the various news channels, “Tivoing” what I am not watching so I can skip the commercials and watch at least three channels. Sadly, I will be getting on a plane Tuesday late afternoon to London so will not know what happens until I get to my hotel. Some quick news feed and then onto the office of Variant Perception where my co-author Jonathan Tepper and I will bury ourselves for four days finishing the book.
Your hoping the Rangers can pull it out analyst,
Sovereign Subjects: Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, But How
September 21, 2010
As I am traveling in Europe for a few more days, it seems appropriate to review the very fascinating work of Arnuad Mares of Morgan Stanley in London. He poses the very provocative question: “Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, but How?” and comes up with some very interesting statistics. He suggests that simply looking at debt to GDP misses the point and offers four other ways we should also evaluate sovereign debt risk. This is a very worthy contribution to Outside the Box.
The question I get over and over as I travel and present my thoughts is “When is the US going to get real about its fiscal deficits?” There is little sympathy for the massive deficits we are running. We are making Europe, or at least the part of Europe I am visiting, very nervous. Let us hope after the next elections we can say we are getting a handle on the deficits, and from both sides of the aisle and not just the Republicans. This is going to require cooperation.
Mallorca is very beautiful, but they have a very small and particularly nasty breed of wasp that has my left hand and fingers quite swollen and sore. But that did not take away from sitting on the balcony with my partners late one night watching a spectacular lightening display as a thunder storm was coming our direction. Then all of a sudden, we saw something that none of us have ever seen.
The moonlight was behind us, and shining through the clouds formed a very clear white rainbow. It was an amazing sight. I will never forget it. Not sure what it is a metaphor for, but I was glad to have witnessed it.
Your sometimes you just get lucky analyst,