What We Don’t See - July 2005
July 25, 2005
This week we will turn once again to a group headquartered in Hong Kong with offices in Stockholm and New York called GaveKal Research Limited. They did a long piece on What We See And What We Don't See and we have edited it down to the What We Don't See portion of the research. I really enjoy reading the guys from GaveKal, as they challenge my thinking.
(Incidentally, Louis Gave was in my office last week, coming down to watch a game [Those Yankees beat us again]. He is married to a delightful young lady from Oklahoma so comes to the area from time to time. I look forward to spending more time with him.)
They admit that it is not the obvious market observations that clients pay them to deliver, but the unobvious or what we don't see that really matters. They bring up some interesting and non mainstream views of the Euro, China and the US Dollar, which is why this was picked for Outside the Box.
The New Carry Trade
July 11, 2005
This week we will turn once again to a group headquartered in Hong Kong with offices in Stockholm and New York called GaveKal Research Limited. We pull together three one page commentaries from last week that focused on the carry trade.
They make the point is that over the last ten years the carry trade has moved from the Yen to the US Dollar and is now moving to the Euro. This is a short concise piece that gets right to the point and brings a lot of ideas. Most economists are still forecasting a weak dollar, but GaveKal presents a scenario that could lead short-term to a strong dollar and even weaker Euro. This is an outside of consensus view, which is why this was picked for Outside the Box.