For the last few months in my regular letter I have been pounding the table that corporate earnings are going to decline this year, which is always a negative atmosphere for stocks. Since today is the beginning of the earnings season for the first quarter, I thought it would be helpful to look at this piece from our old friend James Montier, head of equity research at Societe Generale based in London. It seems that analysts are behind the curve when it comes to predicting future earnings. James shows us why and then goes on to demonstrate that even the meager earnings reductions that are projected are not priced into the market as many bullish commentators suggest. This should make for an interesting Outside the Box.
I am excited to present to you today a very interesting piece by my good friend and local Dallas resident, Ed Easterling. Ed has performed an in-depth study on how several key fundamentals have performed over time and how they are likely to perform over the next several years. His analysis shows how EPS and corporate profit margins have correlated to the business cycle dating all the way back to 1950. I find his study to be very insightful and dead on in the midst of the current market climate.
For those of you unfamiliar with Ed and his work, he is the author of Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock market Cycles and President of an investment management firm. In addition, Ed is a member of the adjunct faculty at SMU's Cox School of Business where he teaches a course on alternative investments and hedge funds for MBA students. Mr. Easterling is most known for publishing provocative research on the financial markets which can be viewed at www.CrestmontResearch.com.
I trust that you will find his "Beyond the Horizon" to be very compelling research and an "outside the box" point of view. May you enjoy!