Iraq, Iran, and the Next Move
April 28, 2011
For those of you that have read about my new book, Endgame, you know I make the point that, while there are no good options for dealing with the debt crisis, the worst choice of all is doing nothing. In today's Outside the Box, you'll see a similar argument — but this "lesser of two evils" situation deals with the U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq, and the ever-present Iranian push to dominate the Persian Gulf region.
George Friedman — my friend, and founder of STRATFOR, a global intelligence company — discusses the potential "bad options" the U.S. has in its attempt to rein in Iran, and arrives at what he considers the least detrimental: negotiation. The worst of course is doing nothing, thus allowing Iran to increase its hold on the entire region — a region on which the global economy is dependent for its oil... You can see why all this matters.
More and more, investors are realizing the importance of geopolitical risk in their assessments. I highly recommend STRATFOR for all things geopolitical. Right now, they're offering a hefty discount — plus a free copy of Endgame — for any of my readers who wish to subscribe. Enjoy the free piece below, and <<see their special offer here>>.
U.S. Drawdown From Iraq Leaves Void
September 2, 2010
The U.S. withdrawal date has come and gone. What will post-withdrawal Iraq look like? Can the Iraqi security forces fill the void? How will Iran exploit the diminished U.S. presence? To understand the answers to these questions you need a perspective the is to the point and contains no bias. In today's Outside the Box I'm including a insightful video from the analysts at STRATFOR, a global intelligence company.
This region matters, and STRATFOR keeps you informed. <<Click here to watch the video>> and sign up for their free intelligence reports.
Iraq Endgame
August 20, 2009
As many of have heard, I had the pleasure of partaking in a weekend of fishing and intellectual jousting with some of today's most brilliant minds. We spoke of war, politics, and of course, the economy. Their interconnection seems somehow much clearer sitting on a Maine lake fishing for bass. This week I offer you an article that's key to understanding the U.S. role in Iraq. Futurologist and fellow aspiring fisherman George Friedman at STRATFOR lays out piece by piece U.S. options in the region. If your interests have anything to do with global energy markets -- and whose don't? -- it's enormously important that you grasp the relationships between various sectors in and around Iraq, and the possibilities moving forward.
Staying aware of geopolitical imperatives around the globe is crucial to any comprehensive investment portfolio. I encourage you to check out STRATFOR's Web site for whatever informs your investment area. Plus, my readers get a special membership rate.
Obama’s Challenge
November 13, 2008
With the election of a new US President, everyone is focused on the "First 100 Days." How Obama transitions into the presidency impacts not just the U.S. but the entire global system. What happens to U.S. relations with Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan? What's going to happen at Treasury and to all the programs addressing the financial crisis? What's going to emerge from the next G20 summit?
You need to read the analysis below, written by my good friend George Friedman at Stratfor. He details the immediate issues facing the president-elect, including one of the stickiest: Europe's desire for a global banking regulatory regimen. How will Obama respond to European pressure? George has built his company Stratfor and its reputation on forecasting the future, and I'm amazed at how often he's right -- on broad themes and specific events.
As we move into the next 100 days, George is way ahead of us with a book called The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. I've read an advance copy, and it's absolutely fascinating. In it, he maps out what geopolitical changes the world will see in the next hundred years: the rise of Mexico (and war with the U.S.!), Poland and Turkey returning to great-power status, and a second Cold War, among others. I can tell you, his arguments are as absolutely compelling as the conclusions are provocative.
George has arranged a special pre-publication offer for my readers. Click here to take advantage of a Stratfor Membership that also includes a free copy of George's new book. For insight into the next 100 days and the next 100 years, I'm relying on George Friedman and his team at Stratfor. I know you'll find as much value in George's forecasts as I do.
The New President and the Global Landscape
October 1, 2008
In times of crisis, those with psychological fortitude discover opportunities that most people miss. A friend of mine in Houston tells me of unending piles of tree limbs broken down by the hurricane. The homeowner laments his disaster; the tree trimmer and the roofer order a new Mercedes. Most of the world sees a Wall St. meltdown. Buffett takes the opening to deploy billions from his cash hoard. They're all seeing the same thing, but they're reacting differently based on different visions of the future.
I've included a piece today from my friend George Friedman over at Stratfor about the landscape the next US President will face. This article is a perfect example of why I rely on Stratfor for my geopolitical intelligence. The newspapers and other media do better or lesser jobs of telling me about what's happening right now. But that's not what an investor needs. What I need - and I recommend for you - is an analysis of what we're going to be facing. That's where George and his team absolutely excel.
For at least the next month, the public conversation is going to be completely dominated by the November election and the political maneuvering to address the financial crisis. There will be tremendous drama. There will be dizzying swings back and forth in emotions, expectations, and more than likely the markets. And if you focus on it, you'll miss the real opportunities to position yourself for the emergence. George has made a special offer on a Stratfor Membership available to my readers, and I strongly encourage you to click here to take advantage of this opportunity. Now is the time to get positioned for future opportunities, while everybody else is wallowing in the here and now.
The Major Diplomatic and Strategic Evolution in Iraq
August 9, 2007
This week in a Special Outside the Box good friend George Friedman addresses the Byzantine geopolitical ramifications of recent three party discussions between the Americans, Iraqis, and Iranians. With no obvious reason to trust one another and a good deal of reasons not to, why are we seeing evidence of more discussions. As George tells it, there is more than meets the eye to these talks. The different parties all strive to extract the most favorable concessions from the Iraq War befitting their respective, and divergent interests; alas, both Iran and the US have come to the realization, albeit belated, that neither party can achieve their objective and the even far more politically grievous realization that no single party can aspire to control or stability in Iraq without the explicit cooperation of all parties, working in unison toward collective initiatives. Further, the risk that everything spins out of control is forcing negotiations among enemies.
This Stratfor piece is an objective, thought provoking assessment of the geopolitical ramifications of the American, Iraqi, Iranian three party talks that will have drastic implications on our political landscape, Middle Eastern stability, and the ubiquitous "War on Terrorism." Stratfor always provides insightful and pertinent research on economic and geopolitical events and their respective ramifications and is my favorite source for geo-political information. Stratfor continues to generously provide significant savings to readers of Outside the Box, for further information please clicking here.
I hope you find this article enlightening and thought provoking.
Geopolitics and the U.S. Spoiling Attack
March 29, 2007
This week's special edition Outside the Box is what I would call one of the more "philosophical" pieces by Stratfor President George Friedman...let me explain. In his article "Geopolitics and the U.S. Spoiling Attack," George looks through the lens of history at the US involvement in Iraq by comparing the outcomes with past US military encounters. While he goes on to show the result of each situation, the most interesting part, at least to me, has been the intended or unintended consequences that have developed as a result.
For example, George hypothesizes that victory may not be or have been the optimal outcome for all of the past US military endeavors, but rather the strategy (or unintended consequence) of only using a fraction of the country's military might to disrupt an imposing enemy's agenda. This is what he calls a "spoiling attack."
George's company Stratfor provides some insightful and comprehensive research on geopolitical events and global affairs. He continues to be generous by offering my readers a discount to his normal subscription rates which can be obtained by clicking here.
My desire is that you continue to find these special editions of Outside the Box to be valuable and, at the very least, thought provoking.
Back to Iraq
November 9, 2006
The past couple of days have been filled with anticipation over the outcome of which party will emerge victorious during this year's elections. Adding to the flurry of activity, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfield unexpectedly announced his resignation raising further questions about the future of American policy. Both the parties and individuals newly appointed to government positions will have an impact on both fiscal policy for the markets (dividend and taxes) and on our foreign involvement (the war in Iraq).
My good friend, George Friedman, has written an excellent analysis of the situation and has allowed me to freely send it to you, my readers. In his article, he provides a good review of the key events of the past several days and then directs his attention towards what decisions will be faced by the new representatives.
George has decided to continue offering a special discount of 50% off the normal subscription price to his service. In order to receive the discount, you must click here. I trust that you will enjoy this special edition of "Outside the Box."
U.S. Vulnerability and Windows of Opportunity - Special Edition
October 12, 2006
Today marks the first of a new series of special editions of "Outside the Box" that will feature the work of my good friends at Stratfor and be released every other Thursday. With the war in Iraq, geopolitical controversy over oil dependency, and an ever increasing merging towards a global economy, I feel it timelier than ever to stay up-to-date on the geopolitical landscape as it can have broad implications for both investment and political decision making. Contrary to many of the conflicting assessments by politically motivated pundits, each with their own agendas, that are put forth as "analysis," Stratfor is a reality based in-depth and logical intelligence service. As I have said in the past, Stratfor is my main and favorite source for geo-political news and analysis. They have often been referred to in the mainstream press as a 'private CIA,' but I would say in Stratfor's defense that they seem to be more right than their government counterpart.
George Friedman, President of Stratfor, has written an uncomfortable yet nonetheless important piece on America's vulnerability to North Korea and other foreign countries aside from Iraq. He discusses how the outcome in Iraq was much different than expected and how the repercussions will unfold into the future. As I mentioned, it is not a "feel good" article for U.S. citizens, however it is always important to embrace the cold, hard facts for effective decision making and successful investing.
You can click here to subscribe to Stratfor's Daily services at a 50% discount. I have arranged for those subscribing today to get their new 25 page quarterly predictions and analysis report, where they analyze each region of the world, highlighting specific countries where there are potential problems. It is a must read for me. I think you will find it quite useful.
I hope that you will enjoy this addition to the "Outside the Box" family and gain insight into how today's politics are shaping the future of the global economy.
Iraq: The Policy Dilemma
September 7, 2006
Today I am sending out a Special Edition of Outside the Box. My good friend George Friedman, the President of Stratfor.com, has posted a very insightful essay on the dilemma facing the U.S. on the situation in Iraq. Contrary to many of the conflicting assessments by politically motivated pundits, each with their own agendas, that are put forth as "analysis," Stratfor provides reality based in-depth and logical analysis. Again, if you are in the business of managing money (someone else's or your own) where an eye to what is happening in the world is critical, or you are a student of geo-politics, or both, I strongly suggest that you stay up-to-date on the geopolitical landscape as it can have broad implications for both investment and political decision making.
As I have said in the past, Stratfor is my main and favorite source for geo-political news and analysis. They have often been referred to in the mainstream press as a 'private CIA,' but I would say in Stratfor's defense that they seem to be more right than their government counterpart.
A subscription to Stratfor is well worth the money as George tells me that the renewal rates are close to 90%, which demonstrates how valuable their readers regard the information that they receive on a daily basis. While this essay is on Iraq, they also cover the rest of the world, and you can get information on whatever part of the world you are interested in on their website.
Once again I talked George into dropping his subscription price to half. Click here to find out more and to signup. And I would say I hope you enjoy the essay, but what George suggests the new reality of Iraq to be is not actually fun reading. Iraq may be on its way to becoming a real problem with no easy answers from a US perspective.
Breakpoint in Iraq: What Went Wrong
August 10, 2006
Today I am sending out a Special Edition of Outside the Box. My good friend George Friedman at Stratfor.com has posted a very powerful essay on the new situation in Iraq. I must warn you, it is disturbing for those who, like myself, want a positive and peaceful outcome in Iraq. But since our thinking and investing should reflect reality and not wishful thinking, I suggest you take the time to read this piece.
As I have said in the past, Stratfor is my main and favorite source for geo-political news and analysis. They have often been referred to in the mainstream press as a 'private CIA,' but I would say in Stratfor's defense that they seem to be more right than their government counterpart.
Again, if you are in the business of managing money where an eye to what is happening in the world is critical, or you are a student of geo-politics, or both, I strongly suggest you get your own subscription to Stratfor. George tells me that the renewal rates are close to 90%, which demonstrates how valuable their readers regard the information that they receive on a daily basis. While this essay is on Iraq, they also cover the rest of the world, and you can get information on whatever part of the world you are interested in on their website.
Once again I talked George into dropping his subscription price to half. Click here to find out more and to signup. And I would say I hope you enjoy the essay, but what George suggests is that reality is not actually fun reading. Iraq may be on its way to becoming a real problem with no good answers from a US perspective.
Breaking Point in Iraq
May 29, 2006
As this letter is going out on Memorial Day, our thoughts are with our military that are stationed in harm's way around the world, and especially to those who over the years have sacrificed so that we can live in liberty. In keeping with that theme, last week, I read a very prescient essay by George Friedman of Stratfor.com. George is the closest thing to a private CIA that I know of. His firm does analysis and forecasts of world-wide political and economic trends, in both global and country specific arenas. Quite simply, I think George and his team are the best at giving me a daily handle on world events.
This essay is about Iraq. As Iraq is front and center of the problems in the US, affecting much of what happens in other area of our lives, it is important that we get a balanced understanding of what is really happening.
As an aside, I had lunch with George last week. At the end of the meal, I asked him about Iran. While Iran is an issue, he thinks that it will get resolved. As he points out, if you really want to build a nuclear bomb, you do it quietly and then announce it when you have it, like Pakistan or India or North Korea. If you want to use it as a negotiating tool, you shout it to the world. The Persians have been skilled traders for 4,000 years, and they are working the West again. Where George thought we should really have some concern is Nigeria. I agree. A civil war there brings world oil supplies tumbling, and prices soaring. It is looking increasingly worse.
If you are a fund, money manager or business for whom having solid information on world events is important, or you are just an information junkie looking for the best sources, I suggest you click on the following link and consider subscribing to their service. I very seldom ever suggest you subscribe to a publication, but this is one of those times. There is a 40% discount off the regular price as a Memorial Day Special, only $199 a year, and that is a bargain!
https://www.stratfor.com/offers/060522-milrate/?ref=060522-milrate-BMG&camp=060522-milrate
Now, I hope you enjoy George's essay on Iraq.