Quarterly Review and Outlook - Third Quarter 2006
October 9, 2006
This week's "Outside the Box" is by my friends and the always out of the box thinkers at Hoisington Investment Management. In their 3rd quarter market commentary, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt weigh in on a myriad of topics ranging from the data affecting interest rates to housing to the outlook for the dollar. They go on to discuss a correlation between the yield curve and the Leading Economic Index (LEI) that has produced a very accurate track record of predicting recessionary environments.
Based in Austin, Texas, Hoisington Investment Management Company is led 2 economists, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt. They specialize in management of fixed income portfolios for large institutional clients by setting long-term investment strategies based on economic analysis.
While the markets seem stuck in the waters of uncertainty, it is more important than ever to continually focus on prudent principles and independent thought to yield intelligent investments.
Quarterly Review and Outlook: Second Quarter 2006
July 24, 2006
This week's letter is once again from two of my favorite economists, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas. They specialize in management of fixed income portfolios for large institutional clients by setting long-term investment strategies based on economic analysis. They have been one of the most successful bond managers in the country. (I have no affiliation with them.) I eagerly read all of their writing and analysis, and find it to be some of the most thought provoking anywhere.
Their second quarter 2006 Quarterly Review and Outlook looks at the current economic situation in the US after a 1st half sell-off, inversion of the yield curve and a recession threatening. With the markets "teeter tottering" between excitement and fear, Hoisington's article proves to be both insightful and timely, which is why I picked it for this week's "Outside the Box."
Quarterly Review and Outlook - First Quarter 2006
April 17, 2006
Bonds will be our subject for today. But this is not your ordinary outlook for bonds. Despite the current consensus amongst the street, HMIC's Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt have chosen to take a contrarian's approach to the future of the bond market, because of their concerns for the US economy, which they present in detail.
Hoisington Investment Management Company focuses on long-term investment strategies based on Economic Analysis. The firm is a registered investment advisor specializing in fixed income portfolios with over $3.5 billion under management for large institutional clients. Van R. Hoisington is the President and Chief Investment Officer and has produced an outstanding fifteen-year performance record. Dr. Lacy Hunt, an internationally known economist, joined the firm in 1996 adding depth and expertise with his in-depth research and analysis.
Today's article is from their First Quarter Review and Outlook which I am delighted to present to you with their consent. While constructing their assessment for bonds, Van and Lacy walk through each building block, the Fed's actions, consumer spending and the housing market, along the way to assembling a truly "outside the box" outlook for the economy and fixed income securities.
Quarterly Review and Outlook
October 17, 2005
This week's letter is once again from two of my favorite economists, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas. They specialize in management of fixed income portfolios for large institutional clients by setting long-term investment strategies based on economic analysis. They have been one of the most successful bond managers in the country. (I have no affiliation with them.) I eagerly read all of their writing and analysis, and find it to be some of the most thought-provoking anywhere.
Their third quarter 2005 Quarterly Review and Outlook looks at the current economic situation in the US. Tighter monetary supply, a slowdown in housing and higher oil does not bode well for the US consumer. While many see economic strength and inflation worries, Hoisington still sees a flattening yield curve which could turn negative and lead to the next recession. This is not a consensus view, which is why I picked it for this week's "Outside the Box."
Quarterly Review and Outlook 2005
July 18, 2005
This week's letter is once again from two of my favorite economists, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas. They specialize in management of fixed income portfolios for large institutional clients by setting long-term investment strategies based on economic analysis. They have been one of the most successful of bond managers in the country. (I have no affiliation with them.) I eagerly read all of their writing and analysis, and find it to be some of the most thought-provoking anywhere.
Their second quarter 2005 Quarterly Review and Outlook looks at the secular forces that are keeping inflation and long term interest down and why that might continue for an extended period of time. They argue that interest rates only look high from a 1945-1990 reference point and that in fact they may now be closer to the long term historical average and that is why I picked it for this week's "Outside the Box."
2004 Quarterly Review and Outlook
January 17, 2005
This week's letter is once again from two of my favorite economists, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas. They offer a view on bonds which, as Van noted in a conversation with me this week, disagrees with my 2005 forecast of last week. It is important to read well-reasoned opinions which disagree with your own, which is one of my foremost thoughts when selecting each week's article for Outside the Box.
And there are reasons to pay attention to their views on bonds. They specialize in management of fixed income portfolios for large institutional clients by setting long-term investment strategies based on economic analysis. They have been one of the most successful of bond managers in the country. (I have no affiliation with them.) I eagerly read all of their writing and analysis, and find it to be some of the most thought-provoking anywhere.
Their fourth quarter 2004 Quarterly Review and Outlook is an economic forecast of the coming year which looks at the consumer's financial condition and offers a contrarians view to long-bond yields. Let's explore where the economy might head in this weeks "Outside the Box."