The Future of Content

Quick housekeeping note: IF I write an e-letter this week it will be earlier in the week. There will be no letters next week, then we launch the first Saturday morning in January with my annual predictions letter. And just for fun, one of my readers said that the title of last week’s letter should have been “Kicking the Grenade Down the Road.” Better check that pin! Now, this week’s OTB.

I am fascinated to watch the world change at an ever-accelerating pace. Today’s Outside the Box looks at some of those changes, specifically the future of Apple, Google, and media in general. I found this to be a fascinating exchange. Whether you are an investor in tech or simply a consumer of media services (and since you’re reading this, you are), your world is getting ready to change in ways that will boggle your mind – they do mine, at least.

I shot this week’s OTB to my friend David Brin, the sci-fi writer, social critic, and one of the world’s leading futurists. Here is what he said:

“John, I found the Whalen interview brilliant and very informative. I always like guys who take the big, big picture. (Note: I bought AAPL in 1983 at 20 ... after splitting twice, it is now at 320, so I am biased by happiness.)

“It does seem to me that Whalen touches on a key point when he says: ‘It will be interesting how this all gets monetized.’

“He correctly sees the monopolistic control model of content-delivering ‘pipes’ collapsing into a vast lake of content. Though this won't benefit the content owners, either. Moreover, the makers of specific mobile hardware will matter less and less. Money will still be made by each year's best device maker, but it will remain a hardscrabble, highly competitive world. Device-making will not be a robust business model for steady and ongoing profit.”

This is an interview of Michael Whalen (see more on him below) that was conducted by my fishing-buddy friends at The Institutional Risk Analyst. Chris Whalen is one of the honchos there, and he rounded up his brother for the interview. Contact numbers for them (and a free trial subscription) are at the end of the piece.

So put on your thinking cap and let’s jump in.

Your thinking high-speed wireless broadband is the future analyst,