Insolvency Too
October 5, 2010
As readers know, I was in Europe a few weeks ago, making a LOT of presentations. My London-based partners seem to feel that an hour or two of down time is wasted and only for sissies. I learn as much as I impart, and come away with lots of interesting information. Every now and then I learn something that gets into the category of what in the wide, wide world of (multiple expletives deleted) economics is going on? Subprime was like that when I first read about it. Could you really design CDOs that were so patently absurd and then sell them to the Europeans and Asians? Turns out you could.
Last week, Niels Jensen (head of Absolute Return Partners) and I were talking with a variety of pension funds. They started telling us about this thing called Solvency II. Outside the arcane world of European pension funds and insurance companies, it is not on the radar screen of most people. But it may be one of the more explosive problems in our future. Cutting to the chase, the new rules require insurance companies and pension funds to buy more bonds to match their liabilities. But as yields go down they are required to buy yet MORE bonds and then yields go down some more. And so on. The possibility of serious defaults by these same pension funds in the wake of these new rules (setting aside whether it makes sense to actually require pension funds to set aside enough assets to pay their obligations) is all too real. And more pervasive than we now think.
Niels, in his latest Absolute Return Letter, wrote up what we learned, and it is Today’s Outside the Box. Wonder why yields in Europe are falling? Read on.
One quote:
“I am not sure if policy makers understand how potentially dangerous this situation is. We are on the road to insolvency. And, even if pension providers manage to stay solvent, future generations of retirees are likely to run into serious financial difficulties as their retirement savings earn next to nothing, because our political leaders forced new rules on the industry, the implications of which they did not grasp.”
(You can read more of his work at www.arpllp.com and look at the absolute return funds on their platform by writing to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).
I know, I am just a bundle of fun. But this really is stuff we should be aware of. And tomorrow I am off to discuss this and more (with some serious play time thrown in) at the Barefoot Ranch Symposium. Enjoy your week!
Your ready for some R&R analyst,
The Commodities Con
May 18, 2010
A quick introduction for this week's Outside the Box. This is from my London Partner Niels Jensen, talking about the problems with long only commodity funds. This is something I discuss frequently but have not written about in some time. Quite simply, many of the commodity ETFs do not deliver what they promise and in fact many of the inverse funds can lose you money even when you make the right macro call.
Niels gives us a very good explanation of why this is so. So for those of you who have "diversified" into commodity ETFs (not actively managed funds!) or are thinking about it you might really want to read this.
I have worked closely with Niels for years and have found him to be one of the more savvy observers of the markets I know. You can see more of his work at www.arpllp.com and contact them at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) if you want to follow up on their ideas.
Your running our the door for dinner in NYC analyst,
If PIIGS Could Fly
February 2, 2010
I wrote about Greece in last week's letter. Then I ran across this column in the Financial Times by my friend Mohammed El-Erian, chief executive of Pimco, and someone who qualifies to be introduced as one of the smartest men on the planet. It is short and to the point. (www.pimco.com)
Then, somehow my London partner, Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners found the time to write a letter while we were running around Europe. As we had a lot of conversations with some very key players, and a lot of debate, the letter reflects a lot of what we learned, as well as further documents the serious straits that European nations face in the coming years due to their debt and deficits. It is not just a US or Japanese problem. I have worked closely with Niels for years and have found him to be one of the more savvy observers of the markets I know. You can see more of his work at www.arpllp.com and contact them at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).
And finally, many of you are probably familiar with TED Talks. If you are not, you should be. They basically get very smart, creative people to come in and do short talks Tiffani just sent me one of their latest videos. 13 minutes. It blew me away. The world of Minority Report is here, 40 years ahead of schedule. All I could do was just say "Wow!" Its young men like this that should make us all optimists that somehow we will figure out how to get through all this. http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/685
Eclectica November Fund Commentary
November 16, 2009
Today's Outside the Box comes to us from England. My European partner Niels Jensen from time to time sends me some of the best letters he reads from the hedge fund world. He is an excellent filter for me, and this week's Outside the Box offering is no exception. Below is the November commentary from Eclectica fund manager Hugh Hendry. He challenges the current preoccupation with the falling dollar and China, and posits what would happen if that thinking is wrong? It offers some very thought-provoking ideas. You can contact them for more information at info@eclectica-am.com or visit their website: http://www.eclectica-am.com
Your wondering if we are all turning Japanese analyst,
A Country for Old Men and a Bit of Samba
October 5, 2009
We all know that a large wave of Baby Boomers in the US are approaching retirement. But what about the rest of the world? And what happens when those retirees need to spend out of savings? There is more than just a credit crisis and a government deficit crisis in our future. A rising level of retirrees to workers is happening even as I write. And the US is not, for once, the center of the problem. As this week's writer of your Outside the Box Niels Jensen explains, we cannot all export our way out of the problem. There is a global adjustment that must happen and when it does, it will have serious consequences for all. This week's letter is guaranteed to make you think. Set aside a few minutes to do so.
Niels Jensen is the Senior Partner of Absolute Return Partners based in London. I have worked closely with Niels for years and have found him to be one of the more savvy observers of the markets I know. You can see more of his work at www.arpllp.com and contact them at info@arpllp.com.
Make Sure You Get This One Right
July 6, 2009
There are those who sweat over every decision, worrying about how it will affect their lives and investments. Then there is the school of thought that we should focus on the big decisions. I am of the latter school.
85% of investment returns are a result of asset class allocations and only 15% come from actually picking investment within the asset class. Getting the big picture right is critical. In this week's Outside the Box we look at a very well written essay about the biggest of all question in front of us today. Do we face deflation or inflation?
This OTB is by my good friends and business partners in London, Niels Jensen and his team at Absolute Return Partners. I have worked closely with Niels for years and have found him to be one of the more savvy observers of the markets I know. You can see more of his work at www.arpllp.com and contact them at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).
The $33,000,000,000,000 Question
May 11, 2009
It has long been my contention that we are entering an extraordinary period of time in which using historical analogies to plot market behavior is going to become increasingly problematical. In short, the analogies, the past performance if you will, all break down because the underlying economic backdrop is unlike anything we have ever seen. It makes managing money and portfolio planning particularly challenging. Traditional asset management techniques just simply may not work. Buy and hope strategies may be particularly difficult to navigate.
Part of the reason we are co challenged in our outlook is that we are experiencing a deleveraging on a scale in the world that is absolutely breath-taking in its scope. And to balance that, governments are going to have to issue massive amounts of sovereign debt to deal with their deficits. But who will buy it, and at what price? And in which currency? This week's Outside the Box gives us some very basic data points that illustrate the challenge very well. But the problem is that even though we can see the challenge, it is not clear what the final outcome will be, other than stressful volatility as the market reacts.
This week's OTB is by my good friends and business partners in London, Niels Jensen and his team at Absolute Return Partners. I have worked closely with Niels for years and have found him to be one of the more savvy observers of the markets I know. You can see more of his work at www.arpllp.com and contact them at info@arpllp.com.
Europe On the Ropes
March 2, 2009
This week we look at the European bank markets through the eyes of my London partner Niels Jensen, head of Absolute Return Partners. I continue to believe that this is a brewing crisis which could have far more significant implications for the global economy than the Asian Crisis of 1998. In this week's Outside the Box, Niels has compiled a sobering set of data that suggests that only massive government involvement in Europe on a scale that is unprecedented will keep the wheels from coming off in Europe and the global economy.
I have worked closely with Niels for years and have found him to be one of the more savvy observers of the markets I know. You can see more of his work at www.arpllp.com and contact them at info@arpllp.com.
Can The Euro Survive?
February 2, 2009
Milton Friedman famously predicted that the euro would not last past their first economic crisis. This week we look at commentary by Niels Jensen that explores the news from Euroland. Can the euro survive? He explores a number of options which are most definitely not on the radar screen for most investors. It is good to get a perspective from those outside of our own back yard. Note that when he says "our country" he is referring to Great Britain.
Niels is the Managing Partner of Absolute Return Partners based in London (which is my European partner). I work closely with Niels for years and have found him to be one of the more savvy observers of the markets I know. You can see more of his work at www.arpllp.com and contact them at info@arpllp.com. The numbered footnotes are at the end of the letter.
When the Chickens Come Home to Roost
November 10, 2008
Can the credit crisis get any worse? In this week's Outside the Box my London partner Niels Jensen shows that it indeed can. Banks, and mainly European banks, have large exposure to emerging market debt of all types through both sovereign, corporate and individual loans. Just as banks have had to write down large losses from the subprime crisis and other related problems, next will come a wave of potential losses from yet another source. Niels then goes on to give us a look the size and problems with hedge fund deleveraging. Altogether, this is a very interesting letter and one that is written from a non-US point of view that I think you will find instructive.
Niels Jensen is Managing Partner of Absolute Return Partners based in London, which is a boutique alternative investment firm (www.arpllp.com). You can write Niels at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) if you like with your comments and questions.
Observations on a Crisis
September 22, 2008
This week we look at a very solid piece of analysis on the world economy from my friends and London business partners Niels Jensen and Jan Wilhelmsen of Absolute Return Partners (www.arpllp.com). I find it is quite useful to read the considered opinions of those from outside the US and particularly from people who have developed keen insight from years in the trenches. Niels and Jan are certainly in that category. The world economy is clearly out of balance and they point out where some of the opportunities and problems lie. I think you will find this edition of Outside the Box quite useful. If you care to, you can write them at info@arpllp.com.
From South Africa,
A Great Buying Opportunity?
March 3, 2008
This week we look at yet another rather obscure credit market that is in essential lockdown as the subject of your Outside the Box. My London partner Niels Jensen, head of Absolute Return Partners, has written a very interesting piece on the leveraged loan and bank loan markets, which are now upside down and getting more so in the recent weeks. This situation cannot continue, as what are clearly inferior products are selling for more than there high class cousins.
Essentially the sources that bought these loans such as SIVs and highly leveraged funds no longer exist to buy the loans. They have simply gone away and are not coming back. Because many of the funds are being would down through forced liquidations, senior secured loans are selling at a discount to high yield junk from the same company. Until the market digests this overhang, which will take months, Niels points out the opportunities in a distressed market. Like buying a home at auction, while it is not good for the person who lost his home, it means a buyer can get a better value.
I work closely with Niels for years and have found him to be one of the more savvy observers of the markets I know. You can see more of his work at www.arpllp.com. The numbered footnotes are at the end of the letter.)
Wagging the Fat Tail
October 15, 2007
This week in Outside the Box, good friend and London business partner Niels C. Jensen further expands upon the fat tail dilemma I recently discussed in my "Black Swan" e-letter and why many of the risk metrics we use while in theory are useful, in application are woefully misleading. Niels does an excellent job of making the topic understandable and enjoyable to read.
Academic work in the past sixty years from the likes of James Tobin, William F. Sharpe, Eugene Fama, Black, Scholes, Merton, built upon modern portfolio theory and risk management introduced by Harry Markowitz in his now famous paper 'Portfolio Selection,' in the Journal of Finance. Central to all the aforementioned academic work is the assumption that returns are normally distributed, in a Gaussian or bell-shaped curve. If returns are not, then risk management tools such as value-at-risk, become meaningless at precisely the time when you most need risk measurement tools to work! The crux of the matter is a great many finance practitioners today assess investment risk in such fashion, oblivious to the assumptions, and thus, the models shortcomings. The solution you might ask? Niles suggest that it likely lies in Power Law Distributions.
The Absolute Return Letter - July 2006
July 31, 2006
My good friends and London associates, Absolute Return Partners, have recently released their monthly letter. The letter consists of two essays with the first by ARP President Niels Jensen and the second by partner Jan Vilhelmsen. Given that the equity sell-off around the world has been far more dramatic than in the US, I thought it might be useful to get a view from "over the pond."
Niels comments on the correlation between commodities and stocks and takes a look at what history can teach us from years past. In light of all of the talk, this is a contrarian's view opposed to the "it's different this time" camp (like we haven't heard that one before). On the other hand, Jan explores a sector of hedge funds that, by definition, do not live up to their name. He concisely summarizes this discovery by stating, "If you pay the high fees that hedge fund managers demand, you would at least expect to get something that you cannot easily create yourself."
With most observers ranting and raving about the "new economy," I trust that you will enjoy this article that bets against the consensus by siding with history and the data. Enjoy the read and continue to think "Outside the Box."
Deteriorating Global Liquidity
November 21, 2005
Regular readers will know that I have mentioned my London partners, Absolute Return Partners, in the past. They have a monthly letter called The Absolute Return Letter. This week we will look at some recent comments by my very good friend Niels Jensen, the president of ARP. I was just in London last week for a few days, and the topic of this week's OTB was discussed at length over dinner. Niels seems to have a gift for great restaurants and even better wines, as well as strong and thought-provoking opinions.
Niels comments on global liquidity, the dollar and liquidity. Niels sees the U.S. current account deficit as a good thing because it has helped add liquidity and stimulus to the global economy. Past downturns in global liquidity have been accompanied by a financial crisis somewhere in the world and strength in the Dollar. I strongly suggest you look at the charts included in this letter. They are quite instructive.
This is clearly a contrarian call. As you know, most observers predict that the dollar will weaken due to the large current account deficit. Thus, it is perfect for this week's Outside the Box.