All QE2, All the Time
September 27, 2010
Everywhere I turn is another article about Quantitative Easing Part 2. Will they or won’t they? My question last week was will it make any difference? After I sent my letter out, I came across this missive from the always fascinating Ed Yardeni. I like to read Ed because he is not afraid to take an out of consensus call. He is his own man, something of a rarity in the world of economists.
He highlights a report from the Fed on the problem with the money multiplier. It has gone away. (Really? You think?) If you took Econ 101 this was a basic staple.
He writes: “Fed officials are clueless about how quantitative easing is supposed to impact the economy. They aren’t even sure if it has any effect on the economy. The Fed study cited here confirms this known unknown.”
I include the rest of his letter to let you know what type of material he does daily, as some of you might want to take a closer look at his service. ( www.yardeni.com). I really liked his take on housing. This is an excellent choice for Outside the Box.
I am starting to adjust from the travel. Have a great week!
Your ready for some NBA basketball to start analyst,
Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement
September 13, 2010
One of my favorite analysts is Albert Edwards of Societe Generale in London. Acerbic, witty and brilliant. Emphasis on brilliant. The fact that he is a Doppelganger for James Montier (who long time readers are well acquainted with) is a coincidence (or he would say vice versa). I only kind of have permission to forward this note to you, but better to ask forgiveness… So, this week he is our Outside the Box. And a short but good one he is.
I am in Amsterdam and it is late, but deadlines have no time line. Tomorrow more work on the book. It is getting close to the end. Most books are finished when the authors quit in disgust. How many edits can you do? I am close.
I wonder late at night, with maybe a few too many glasses of wine, why I feel like a book is so much more than an e-letter. Really? The last ten years of what I have written are on the archives. Good (ok, sometimes really good) is there. But some are an embarrassment. What was I thinking?
But somehow in my Old World brain, a book is more than a weekly letter. It is somehow more permanent than an "online" letter. Which may be archived forever. The book is "paper" and may be around for a few years. But the online version is here for a long time.
I know that is stupid. Really I do. But what is a 61 year old mind to do? A strange world we live in.
It is really time to hit the send button. More than you know! The conversation tonight has been too deep!
Your working on Labor Day analyst,