Those who know me well know that I am in incurable optimist. I think the world is going to be better in ten years than it is today. I thought that 20 years ago and 10 years ago and expect to think that 10 years from now. Part of that reasoning comes from the accelerating pace of change in the technology world. The next 10 years will see more change than the last 20-30 years combined!
And that means opportunity. Yes, with ups and downs and twists, but opportunity nonetheless.
This week’s Outside the Box is a short essay from my friend Alex Daley who writes the letter Casey’s Extraordinary Technology. I have had the pleasure of spending time and corresponding with Alex, and he is one of the smartest guys I have ever met. Alex had a VERY senior position at Microsoft and has a serious range of experience. In his varied career, he has worked as a senior research executive, a software developer, project manager, senior IT executive, and technology marketer. Aside from his technological prowess, Alex has been involved in numerous startups as an advisor to venture capital companies and a successful angel investor in his own right, with a long history of spectacular investment successes. Every month, he analyzes and recommends the best tech stocks to get in now – from biotech firms to cyber-security providers with innovative solutions.
You can get a free trial subscription to his letter, which I find very valuable in keeping me up to date on what is going on as well as providing some direction (his portfolio has done well!). Click on the link if you are interested. Read more here.
Your paying attention to tech analyst,
This week I have a special Outside the Box for you. My long-time friend Doug Casey wrote a very prescient piece back in 1997. He has updated it somewhat for today's times. The critical part is a summary of the work of Richard Strauss and (friend) John Howe and their book The Fourth Turning, which I consider one of the more important and prescient (that word again) books of the last 25 years. (Amazon.com). It should still be read today. It is seminal to understanding the times we live in.
Doug summarized the book and makes some observations based on that understanding, many of which turned out to be true and some of which may well be in out future. I think you will find this to be very useful and enlightening if you are not familiar with their work, and a great review if you are.
Doug is chairman of Casey Research, author of numerous best-sellers over the last 25 years, raconteur and a certified expert in resources stocks. If you are investing in natural resources stocks, energy or gold without reading Doug and his team at Casey Research, you are missing the boat. They have a special offer for readers of Outside the Box. You can learn more about it here.
Here's wishing you a very happy and prosperous New Year.
Humans, by nature, tend to let things worry them a bit more than they ought to. Whether it's a job situation, relationship issue or investment decision, we all tend to blow the small things out of proportion and lose sight of the bigger picture at hand. In this week's Outside the Box, PIMCO Managing Director Bill Gross does an excellent job at explaining why we need to worry less and grab a hold of some of the larger trends behind today's markets.
In his article "How We Learned to Stop Worrying (so much) and Love 'Da Bomb,'" Bill discusses the four big picture topics of globalization, technology, freer markets/financial innovation and favorable public policy as well as show how these forces will affect economies across the globe. He also points out some potential threats that could disrupt the asset markets overall. One particular point that I found of interest was Bill's explanation of a shift in the credit creation process from that of the Central Bank's to those of more private agents such as hedge funds.
Bill always does a superb job of taking a lot of variables and boiling them down to their key metrics. I trust that you will enjoy his commentary and find it to be both valuable and "outside the box."
This week we look at another interesting essay by Donald Coxe, the Global Portfolio Strategist, BMO Financial Group. He is also the Chairman and Chief Strategist of Harris Investment Management in Chicago, and Chairman of Jones Heward Investments in Toronto. Coxe writes a monthly piece called "Basic Points."
This section of the report looks at what Donald refers to as a Triple Waterfall. This is a similar concept that many readers have seen from me before based on the work of Michael Alexander, Ed Easterling and my own research on secular market cycles. A Triple Waterfall is explained and then a forecast for technology and commodities is made. Enjoy this weeks Outside the Box.