John Galt Plan Might Save US Financial System
March 10, 2008
Caroline Baum is one of my favorite financial columnists, who writes with a voice of calm reason. She writes for Bloomberg, and I encourage you to read her regularly. This week she touches on the problems in the markets and the continuing calls for government intervention.
Things are coming loose in an ever-widening array of markets in the financial world. No one is suggesting that the subprime problems will be contained, as almost every authority figure did last summer. We now know that everything is seemingly connected, a theme that I have written about for years.
So, what should be done now? Read Caroline's brilliant note for one surprising answer.
So What Should We Worry About?
May 7, 2007
Today's Outside the Box is a very interesting piece written by Louis-Vincent Gave and the team at GaveKal entitled "Part 2: So What Should We Worry About?" His article is a follow up to an earlier one that he wrote on why he, and the rest of the GaveKal team, had been bullish on the markets a couple of months ago. This letter is to answer the question "what could go wrong" with their previous outlook in light of the recent market climate.
For those of you unfamiliar with GaveKal, the firm was started in the late 1990s in London by Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave and Anatole Kaletsky. GaveKal is a research firm, focusing on macro economics and tactical asset allocation for institutional clients around the world. Louis-Vincent is the CEO of GaveKal where he contributes frequently to the research and was the main author of their books Our Brave New World and The End is Not Nigh.
Let me make a quick remark regarding the latter of his 2 books. The End is Not Nigh has just recently been released and I highly recommend it as a good read. It is a great example of a book that presents a positive view of not just the markets but of the developing world as well. You can purchase the book directly from their website (www.gavekal.com) or through Amazon.
I trust that you will enjoy this week's Outside the Box from the always thought-provoking Louis-Vincent Gave.
The Missing Link to Global Rebalancing
April 23, 2007
Over the past couple of years, I've written quite a bit about how the global economy has taken shape and why it is important to understand it when building one's investment portfolio. There have been many market pundits saying that the global economy is out of balance with each individual having some sort of variable solution, whether it be the currency markets, trade relations or productivity growth. Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist, Stephen Roach, has written an excellent article on the subject, one definitely worthy of this week's "Outside the Box."
In his article "The Missing Link to Global Rebalancing," Roach contradicts the widespread notion that the US Dollar is the primary driver for rebalancing and explains why personal consumption is the issue to keep an eye on. For those of you unfamiliar with Roach, I always find his musings and analysis to be very forward thinking in nature, regardless if our views completely align.
I trust that you will enjoy his commentary and find it valuable to your investment acumen.
MACRO-MARKETS: Gold Trading Boot Camp
March 26, 2007
I probably get as many questions about gold as I do any subject. The fascination with the yellow metal permeates all levels of investors, and opinions can be quite strong. But few are more informed than those of good friend and trader extraordinaire, Greg Weldon.
Greg has written a new book called "Gold Trading Boot Camp, how to Master the Basics and Become a Successful Commodities Investor." I highly recommend it for those wanting to get a grasp of how a successful trader's mind works. Greg is one of the best and maybe the most prolific commentators on market trends. Up well before dawn each day, he is a machine. Each day he produces 15-20 pages of in-depth commentary on a huge variety of topics, both fundamental and technical, that informs some of the top trading desks in the world.
I asked him to give us some idea of what his book is about and then give us a top down view of the market for gold as it stands today. For those of you who follow gold, or are merely curious, I think you will find this fascinating.
You can get the book at Amazon.com. It is very readable. Greg has an effortless, unique style that is fun, fast-paced and easy to comprehend with not a lot of technical jargon to make it hard for the beginner yet enough insights that the professionals will be taking lots of notes.
Get the book and enjoy this week's Outside the Box.