I am back in Tuscany and will head to Milan tomorrow early, give a speech at the Bloomberg offices and then back home. But it is Monday and that means it is time for another Outside the Box. And I have found a most excellent offering. Dylan Grice from Societe Generale in London wrote on value for an OTB a few weeks ago, and he follows that up with more thoughts on the use of macro trends versus value investing. This is a real think piece, and worthy of more than one read.
I have to hit the send button, as my last dinner in Italy awaits (and real Italian food has been a revelation, and the wines! I am something of a chardonnay snob, and usually turn my nose up at Italian and French whites, but I found some local Tuscan chardonnays that were up to the best in California. And at reasonable costs.).
Your not wanting to leave Tuscany analyst,
This week's letter is from another one of the country's top economic analysts, Paul Kasriel of The Northern Trust Company. Kasriel is Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research, responsible for producing the Corporation's economic and interest rate forecasts. He advises the Bank's Assets-Liabilities Committee as well as the Corporation's Investment Policy Committee.
Prior to joining The Northern Trust in 1986, Mr. Kasriel was an officer in the economic research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He also has been a lecturer in finance at the Northwestern University Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Mr. Kasriel received a B.A. degree in economics from the University of South Florida and an M.A. degree in economics from Indiana University.
Mr. Kasriel takes a look at what he calls the Wealth Illusion. He contends that people feel wealthy due to investing and real estate gains, but that the true gauge of wealth should be the growth in the country's capital stock and using this measure things don't look as bright for the U.S. Let's take an "Outside the Box" look at wealth.