Outside the Box

The Geopolitics of Pandemics

John Mauldin

May 8, 2009

Dear Friends -

If you ever look at the footnotes, you know that "Past performance is no guarantee of future results." That said, by the time you've gotten a bit of gray hair, you realize that there are few teachers as good as history. "But this time it's different!" is the cry of people that are usually just about to lose a bunch of money.

Read the analysis below from my good friend George Friedman at STRATFOR on the latest new thing, the swine flu outbreak. A few points you ought to take away with you:

  • while the situation is serious, it's not cause to become hysterical or irrational
  • the way to evaluate the current threat is by benchmarking it against similar historical events
  • and as investors, if we don't look outside the worlds of finance and economics, we can get painfully blindsided

These three points are precisely why I incorporate STRATFOR insights into my investment planning. STRATFOR provides the narrative of the future by studying the past. Those of you that got to visit with George in La Jolla know what I'm talking about. If you're looking for context and understanding of tomorrow's global events - and if you're not, you're really in trouble! - I heartily suggest you click here to take advantage of the special offer that George makes available to my readers for a STRATFOR Membership.

There aren't any guarantees in life. But there are good, solid principles that you ignore at your peril. That "there's nothing new under the sun" is a lesson to take to heart.

Your Gray(ing) Eminence Analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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The Geopolitics of Pandemics

By George Friedman

May 4, 2009

Related Special Topic Page - Swine Flu Outbreak 2009

Word began to flow out of Mexico the weekend before last of well over 150 deaths suspected to have been caused by a new strain of influenza commonly referred to as swine flu. Scientists who examined the flu announced that this was a new strain of Influenza A (H1N1) derived partly from

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