Outside the Box

The Unintended Empire

John Mauldin

December 22, 2011

A new year is almost upon us, so now seems like a perfect time to step back from the (many) crises at hand and take stock of the big picture. According to my friend & fellow thinker George Friedman, the big picture of the next 10 years is this: America will dominate, and the American president will have to figure out how to act as global emperor without admitting that's what he is.

George's newest book, The Next Decade, comes out in paperback in January; and he's graciously agreed to let me send you the first chapter, which backs up the bold statements above. We don't always agree, but I have to give George credit. He's an expert at constructing an argument.

If the first chapter whets your appetite, you can <<get a free copy of the book>> when you subscribe to STRATFOR, a geopolitical intelligence company founded and led by George. It is the publication to read if you're interested in foreign affairs. Plus, OTB readers can get a hefty discount.

Your really glad I'm not a global emperor analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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The Unintended Empire

By George Friedman, STRATFOR

The American president is the most important political leader in the world. The reason is simple: he governs a nation whose economic and military policies shape the lives of people in every country on every continent. The president can and does order invasions, embargos, and sanctions. The economic policies he shapes will resonate in billions of lives, perhaps over many generations. During the next decade, who the…

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Jay Master

Dec. 23, 2011, 8:33 p.m.

Machiavelli could not have said it better! He believed in the principle of Expediency and that, whether you like it or not, is what is called for in a world filled with countries and rulers driven by expediencies. Unfortunately, the U.S. is led today by a President who lacks either the understanding or the strength of leadership required to cope with the inherent contradictions within such a world.
James Baker, who served three American Presidents in three different positions requiring insight and determination, said recently that leadership requires seeing and understanding the needs and goals, then doing it; with about 60% of the effort focused on “the doing.” We need new leadership that can both see and do.
Jay Master

John Hunter

Dec. 23, 2011, 5:12 p.m.

Mr. Friedman does a credible job of presenting America as an Empire, and draws heavily on history to do so.  What seems to be mysteriously omitted from his argument is the fact that there is not one example of an empire that has survived in the long term [  read, UNSUSTAINABLE ].

So perhaps a better approach might be to look at the model of failed-empires and try to head off what could be an inevitable fate.

Thomas Childs

Dec. 23, 2011, 4:47 p.m.

Tom Childs
Ave Caesar

Dennis Weber

Dec. 23, 2011, 4:10 p.m.

Friedman echoes the Kissinger-Nixon grand strategic thinking based on Metternich’s belief in self-interest—not only rethinking our relationships with russia and China but (less well-known) also being open to forging new regional alliances (i.e. Brazil, Iran, Singapore). But his analysis is hampered by the same shortcomings of Nixon—an undefined moral purpose. His examples of Lincoln, FDR, and Reagan fail to capture the real moral purpose which really is the growth of freedom, liberty, and democracy leading towards a more just society. Lincoln’s untimely death also delayed justice for former slaves whose Reconstruction gains were destroyed by the emergence of Jim Crow; FDR’s success survived his untimely death through Truman’s Marshall Plan and NATO; and Reagan’s success is still emerging in eastern Europe and Asia. The only moral purpose that justifies the means is one leading to a more just society. That is why alliances with ruthless dictators must be short-term, at best.

Dave Scotese

Dec. 23, 2011, 3:17 p.m.

I recommend that Friedman do a little more research regarding Lincoln and Roosevelt: http://mises.org/daily/5580

Bill Bowman

Dec. 23, 2011, 1:23 p.m.

A great challenge ... “a call to educational arms” ... we can no longer stand behind the Statue of Liberty” while subverting half of our population through the process of entitlements ... Bill Bowman, an independent market analyst

Frank Blangeard

Dec. 23, 2011, 1:18 p.m.

“While America’s power might degrade, power of this magnitude does not collapse quickly except through war.”
“Yet, as we will see, a high degree of global interdependence with the United States at the center, actually increases - rather than diminishes - the danger of war.”
China will eventually challenge the United States and the US will have a choice of backing down or going to war. It is unlikely that the US will back down. The point at which China challenges the US may be as few as five years away or it may be decades…but it will come. The Chinese are a patient people.

Andrew Swann

Dec. 23, 2011, 9:10 a.m.

“Recognizing that the United States will generate resentment or hostility, he must harbor no illusions that he can simply persuade other nations to think better of us without surrendering interests that are essential to the United States.”  I would love to see a list of what Mr. Friedman considers “interests that are essential” to the United States. My impression is that aside from trying to come up with new ways to tweak the delivery to disguise the package, the plan he endorses is just more of the same. The same being that which has bankrupted us and brought our great Nation to the brink of financial and moral collapse. For a publication that fancies itself “Outside the Box” this is about the most “Inside the Box” type of analysis imaginable. Let’s don’t change what we are doing or make any fundamental structural reforms, let’s just get better ( and more deceptive ) at Empire.

I suggest we re-think what interests are “essential” to the US and make some serious structural reforms. Like perhaps using NG as a transportation fuel for starters and getting out of the ME all together over the next 5 years. We have tons of options for winding down the Empire. None are easy and all would require sacrifice and hard work ( something Americans used to do ).

The alternative, which appears to be Mr. Friedman’s preferred path seems to be just tweak the image and delivery enough to fool the rest of the word but at the end of the day, business as usual ( and of course force when necessary ). This is, in my humble opinion, a sure fire recipe for continued decline of our economy fiscally and our nation morally. This is the epitome of “Inside the Box” thinking.

I suggest we try something radically different than the policies and politics that have produced what you now see playing out. Think about it. It really does not have to be this way and yet the conventional wisdom seems to be we can’t really change and don’t really have to.

Try thinking outside the box. Really.

Good luck, Andrew Swann

Ronald Nimmo

Dec. 23, 2011, 7:39 a.m.

This article ably discusses the benefits of projecting power, but does not compare those benefits with the costs of projecting such power. Such costs are not only financial , but entail economic distortions and cultural costs resulting from the overemphasis on controlling the “outside environment”. One example is the dismantling of American manufacturing ability and another is the cultural and demographic disintegration cause by trying to be “everything to everybody”.

Ronald Nimmo

Dec. 23, 2011, 7:05 a.m.

Friedman is invoking the legacy of Palmerston and Washington, not to mention Machiavelli, as practitioners of realpolitik. But special relationships are derived not only from expedient interest, but from knowing who we are and from what we are derived. Identity within a diverse constellation is an essential element of coherence. Loss of “structural integrity” will lead to loss of the ability to project and manage power.

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