To the Class of 2012

It is the season when students all over the country are graduating and listening to graduation speeches. I have heard more than my share over the years. But never one like this week's Outside the Box essay, from my friend and world-class demographer Neil Howe. Neil was co-author of The Fourth Turning, which way back in 1997 absolutely nailed the coming generational changes we are now living through, giving us a fascinating and eerily accurate guide to our future. The premise is that a generation is a 20-year period and that generational social tendencies repeat roughly every 80 years and have done so in the Anglo-Saxon world for hundreds of years. And now the Millennial generation is coming of age in a world dominated by Boomers, and we are seeing another cycle change.

And, encouragingly, Neil is rather upbeat about this generation. But for different reasons than most of us might think. This is not a long read, but I strongly suggest you do peruse it. As we think back (in the US) this weekend about those who have sacrificed so much, and wonder how future generations can live up to that, Neil gives us hope. Maybe there is another "Greatest Generation" that the world will see. We certainly need one.

Have a great week. I am home and looking forward to getting caught up (somewhat) before I head out to New York on Saturday.

Your watching my own kids grow up analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

subscribers@mauldineconomics.com

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To the Class of 2012

Neil Howe delivered the following commencement address at the University of Mary Washington on May 12, 2012.

At a commencement address, speakers often go on too long. This I won't do. I may not succeed as well as Salvador Dali, who famously delivered the world's shortest speech, only four seconds long. He announced at the podium: "I will be so brief I have already finished," and then sat down.



Commencement…