Outside the Box

Western Civilisation: Decline – or Fall?

John Mauldin

March 6, 2012

I had my nose in Niall Ferguson's newest book, Civilization: The West and the Rest, at every possible moment during my recent trip to Hong Kong and Singapore. It's powerful and very, very timely, and I strongly recommend it. To help get the word out, I asked Niall for a short, somewhat personal piece on the thinking behind the book – in other words, what moved him to write it?

What you're going to find in the piece below for this week's Outside the Box, as well as in the book, is an author who is very concerned about our civilization's prospects – and unafraid to say so. I mean, the last time I looked, "saving the world" had gone distinctly out of fashion. And then, and then, we all grow up and get pretty focused and incremental about things: if we can just address the problem or three right in front of us, we're reasonably content.

But leave it to a Harvard history professor to break out of the box and go tilting at the big picture. And when you think of it, we're all pretty concerned at this point, however we frame the issues. Everywhere we turn, it seems, we find the forces of polarization and dissolution gnawing at our social fabric, and Yeats' fateful line about the center not holding starts to feel uncomfortably prophetic. Maybe it's about time we all thought bigger and worked harder at getting along, while we still can.

Niall turns to a notion put forth by the social scientist Charles Murray, who has called for a "civic great awakening" – a return to the original values of the American republic. We could do worse.

I want to congratulate Niall and Ayaan on their new baby, Thomas Hirsi Ferguson! May he grow up in a world that is flourishing.

Your holding out hope for our future analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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Western Civilisation: Decline – or Fall?

By Niall Ferguson

As a freshman historian at Oxford back in 1982, I was required to read Edward Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Ever since that first encounter with the greatest of all historians, I have pondered the question whether or not the modern West could succumb to degenerative tendencies similar to the ones described so vividly by Gibbon. My most recent book, Civilization: The…

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Asit Beesen

March 10, 2012, 10:44 a.m.

I am not sure how many of those who are commenting here have lived substantial time outside US and/or west (including Europe). I went to US (from India) in 1999 and left after working there for 6 years (chose not to settle there). Then I lived in UK for 6 years. Now I have made a full circle and am in India to experience working in India for first time (though I did all my studies in India). I am really surprised and pained at finding India in its current state compared to where I left it. There is rampart westernisation of addictive stuff but none of good things. Most of the people feel very pessimistic about US and Europe if you go there, but the situation in emerging countries is terrible. The disparity is just unimaginable by any standard you find in the west.

To give an example, I get same salary in India (Delhi) as in London or NY. However, India’s per capita is 1/25th of US and UK. No comparison at all. Food is not cheaper. I really wonder how those people who work on Rs200 ($4) a day take care of families with 2-3 kids etc. It is sheer poverty. And it is true of 60% of the population. So this is economics.

Moralilty is equally declined beyond repair. Corruption is rampant. All the capitalism and democracy we talk about (though good) seem to have been implemented to beneft a few politicians who are mafias and goons.

My point is West is not in a decline. No, not so on a relative basis. It will always be a catchup game. Emerging markets may after 50 years or so match up to some european countries, but not America. America is super rich in resources. And it will be ahead of any country that follows democracy and capitalism as it has had it first.

So the only country that is left to challenge America is China (or may be a nexus of Russia and China). This is purely because they are neither democratic nor capitalist. I am not so great in understanding all this debt talk so much. A quick question: What happens if US defaults to China? The more they delay in doing so the more difficult it will be in the future.

Any ways all this pessimism in the west is overblown. It is just a global economic depresseion in the supercycle. The time when regimes and global orders used to change is gone, simply because the the resources are too clearly defined. There is no more America to be explored by europeans and the Mars fantasy is too far.

Warren E Holmgreen Jr

March 9, 2012, 4:40 p.m.

Mr Ferguson’s insightful thinking and the assumptions he makes are quite valid and rather frightful, in my opinion. 

The authors of the comments that I have read tend only to analyze or add their 2 cents.

NO ONE has postulated any possible solutions to the dilemma we face.  Mr Ferguson offers no solutions.

I am 87 and have witnessed/recognized our decline and felt helpless.  Still healthy, I would spend my last ounce of strength to help forward any solution that I thought worthy. 

The voters certainly will not turn it around…..they have been bought. 

Please….someone with leadership…..coalesce a movement to turn us around….SOON.

I THINK IT WILL TAKE A DICTATOR, but I know of no benevolent dictator.

I wish I could muster some optimism.

Ski Milburn

March 7, 2012, 4:04 p.m.

Excellent analysis, but Mr. Ferguson answers his own question.  FALL.

There’s plenty of blame to go around on both Left and Right, but pointing fingers won’t fix this.  And the sheer degree of cooperation required from both sides to even attempt what he suggests is so far beyond our current ability that it boggles the mind. 

With both the top and the bottom of the pyramid clogged with “Rentiers” the chances that any group will give up their prerogatives for the good of the whole seem to approach zero.  Reminds me of an old Buddhist saying,    “Let’s stop hurting each other.  You go first.”

We live in such a complex society of mutual interdependence, even as we unconsciously celebrate our personal independence, that almost anything could start the Great Unraveling.  Could be a food crisis, an energy crisis, or maybe a weather induced water crisis, but if I was a gambling man, I’d place my bets on a bank and money crisis.  It came perilously close to coming apart a few years ago, and as John keeps reminding us, the risk factors at play then are only worse now and our ability to respond, degraded.

OK, so the United States could fail catastrophically and almost overnight sometime soon, probably within the next 10 years.  You want a model of what that might look like, I’d study the collapse of the Soviet Union.  It was bad while it was happening, but they shed a bunch of territory, debt and dysfunctional institutions and were reborn as Russia not long after.  Things have gotten a lot better for the common people, a few ruthless SOBs got unreasonably rich, and it so many ways they continue on their old trajectory, but it wasn’t the end of the world.  The land (rodina) didn’t fall into the sea, and when the USA follows the USSR onto the trash heap of history, America will remain.

We are divided today, but we will all be Americans again soon enough.

ERROR 236
    VIRUS ATTACK
      CORE MEMORY ADDRESS:  1776
          @FAIL
              GOTO REBOOT

jack goldman

March 7, 2012, 10:52 a.m.

It bewilders me why currency debasement is ignored in this discussion. The welfare state is financed by currency debasement. In real lawful US silver coins the Dow is $650 and gasoline is 20 cents a gallon in 2012. Expanding the currency with debasement benefits corporations, governments, bankers, brokers, and owners of assets. Currency debasement harms children, families, renters, and employees destroying our social fabric.

President Kennedy refused to allow the Fed to take over the money supply in 1963. Kennedy was dead six months later and Johnson was president, silver coins came off the market, and Federal Reserve bank debt notes are now our unlawful money. How can a nation survive when it has no money, no way to store value as savers?

Prices are up 1,000% since 1963 but labor is only up 500%. This is the source of many social problems. Expanding the money supply caused people to speculate in real estate, a non productive asset. I link all our currency problems to currency debasement. The US Federal Reserve is a private, secret, foreign owned, bank charter that is selling US children into debt slavery. America added 10 trillion dollars in debt in the past ten years. This money can never be repaid. The only hope is default. I see no future in America until we return to an honest monetary system where we are not ruled by debt and bankers who own 40% of the economy.

The US Fed and banks now run America, not the government. This is a tragedy. End the Fed and $15 trillion debt or the Fed ends the USA. Currency debasement is our fundamental problem that must be addressed.

Robert Kaplan 35439

March 7, 2012, 12:56 a.m.

This piece is excellent.  I am interested in the Charles Murray book.  I like the idea of “Freedom” mentioned above.  But I think of how important the concept of responsibility is in relation to any of the freedoms. It seems there are excellent observers of our “here and now.”  Can we do the following up and begin to talk with one another and not at one another?  I feel hope.  Thank you for the glimpse of the discussion.

Bud Wood

March 6, 2012, 8:49 p.m.

It is pleasant to read a hopeful essay now and then.  That said, my feeling is to discount the conclusion that the"west” may rise again. 

There have been just too many unsound (and in some cases, corrupt) policy decisions that have set the course.  To Ferguson’s listing of problems, add the incorrect allocation of labor costs; that is using pension benefits to partially pay for past labor costs.  Also, add the artificially low interest rate environment which promotes consumption over capital creation.  In other words, let’s banquet on the seed corn - no worry about tomorrow.  Then, there is the social “security” ponzi scheme that pits generation against generation; that’s not going to workout as the truth of the scheme becomes even more apparent.

The list can go on.  The point is that the present system is accepted and its continuance expected.  We, collectively, are not going to change corruption in high places nor incomprehension in lower places (like in schools) in any reasonable length of time.  We’ve had it too “fat” for so long that a turn around can’t be accomplished in any timely fashion.

Robert Kuhner

March 6, 2012, 7:10 p.m.

I wish I disagreed with his analysis.  Other readers have found “causes” to add to the rise and to the fall of our society, which I haven’t the interest or energy to comment on.

Sadly when I listen to our politicians…especially our candidates running for president, I’m dismayed by slogans and soundbytes that have so little to do with the problems he outlines.  When they tell us how great the USA is (not was) and our fantastic work ethic (so much above all our competitors) I’d like to… Oh well.

Pandering to the voters (your base) will unfortunately get votes, unpleasant truth rarely does.

So, if “Voters and politicians alike dare not postpone the big reboot,” we are in big, big trouble.”

Stefan Bohult

March 6, 2012, 4:05 p.m.

What a boatload of crap. Ferguson is cherry-picking irrelevant statistics from unrelated time-periods to make his point seem wise and insightful. Ferguson is just making stuff up to justify the current buzz-words - competition, 99% vs. 1%, West (my team) vs Rest (other team).

Competition in 17th-century Europe is an oxymoron; unbelievable!.

The problem, that Ferguson use to great effect, is the unbelievable ignorance of people being suckered by Nial “justify anything they want to hear - any which way” Ferguson to believe that there is anything worthwhile among these random statistics.

I sure hope John Mauldin charged Ferguson a boatload to promote this crap; because it’s going to hurt Mauldin’s reputation.

John Campbell

March 6, 2012, 3:36 p.m.

“Social scientist Charles Murray calls for a “civic great awakening”â??a return to the original values of the American republic.”

I started watching Glenn Beck TV. Mr. Beck is leading the culture on this—“one person, one entrepeneur, one town at a time”.

You can check it out at: http://web.gbtv.com/index.jsp

Larry Brown

March 6, 2012, 2:44 p.m.

NDAA means collapse, IMHO.

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