Outside the Box

Western Civilisation: Decline – or Fall?

John Mauldin

March 6, 2012

I had my nose in Niall Ferguson's newest book, Civilization: The West and the Rest, at every possible moment during my recent trip to Hong Kong and Singapore. It's powerful and very, very timely, and I strongly recommend it. To help get the word out, I asked Niall for a short, somewhat personal piece on the thinking behind the book – in other words, what moved him to write it?

What you're going to find in the piece below for this week's Outside the Box, as well as in the book, is an author who is very concerned about our civilization's prospects – and unafraid to say so. I mean, the last time I looked, "saving the world" had gone distinctly out of fashion. And then, and then, we all grow up and get pretty focused and incremental about things: if we can just address the problem or three right in front of us, we're reasonably content.

But leave it to a Harvard history professor to break out of the box and go tilting at the big picture. And when you think of it, we're all pretty concerned at this point, however we frame the issues. Everywhere we turn, it seems, we find the forces of polarization and dissolution gnawing at our social fabric, and Yeats' fateful line about the center not holding starts to feel uncomfortably prophetic. Maybe it's about time we all thought bigger and worked harder at getting along, while we still can.

Niall turns to a notion put forth by the social scientist Charles Murray, who has called for a "civic great awakening" – a return to the original values of the American republic. We could do worse.

I want to congratulate Niall and Ayaan on their new baby, Thomas Hirsi Ferguson! May he grow up in a world that is flourishing.

Your holding out hope for our future analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

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Western Civilisation: Decline – or Fall?

By Niall Ferguson

As a freshman historian at Oxford back in 1982, I was required to read Edward Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Ever since that first encounter with the greatest of all historians, I have pondered the question whether or not the modern West could succumb to degenerative tendencies similar to the ones described so vividly by Gibbon. My most recent book, Civilization: The…

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Chet Nagle

March 6, 2012, 12:44 p.m.

This is my first comment, though I have been an avid reader and fan of John Mauldin for a long time. I am compelled to forward this particular “Outside the Box” piece because it is such essential reading for all Americans. I will send it to several widely read blog sites—I know they will publish it—in the forlorn hope it will be heeded by citizens of the Republic before we find ourselves in extremis. 
Thank you for your wonderful work and insights.
Chet Nagle
author of IRAN COVENANT and
THE WOOLSORTERS PLAGUE

Jerry Bannon

March 6, 2012, 12:36 p.m.

Excellent post however, keeping with the killer apps metaphor, you need a widget for them to operate upon. In this case that widget was the Protestant Reformation, which really was just an Apple Computer type of innovation of the Renaissance. Even in a totally secular article, that Reformation adaption should be a required link. It was after all those non-conformist Scottish Presbyterians that gave us capitalism, the Protestant work ethic and really forced England into Hail Britannia.

Perhaps the best twentieth century worldview along this thread is found in the works of the late and then, within modernist-Presbyterianism, a non-conformist, Francis Schaeffer. His “How Should We Then Live?: The Rise and Fall of Western Culture” being a good place to start.

Jerry Bannon - Publisher, The Wonder Springs Chronicle

Peter Higbie

March 6, 2012, 11:51 a.m.

The U. S is a world economy,  as were Britain and the Netherlands before us. The western world is not at the ‘Empire’ point, far from it. The Roman Empire was the last phase of the Greco-Roman Civilization. There is lots more to come, so relax.

chip rohlke

March 6, 2012, 10:11 a.m.

Interesting that in the whole article I didn’t see any reference to the influence of the Christian faith on the ascent of the West. As one person has said..history is nothing but His Story…the story of God working His Will through the destiny of nations(and people).
Dr. Francis Schaeffer wrote “How Should We Then Live” over 3 decades ago but it’s still relevant today. Without a true “Great Awakening” like the early 1700’s I doubt any amount of material prosperity will save the West.

Ronald Nimmo

March 6, 2012, 9:11 a.m.

Ferguson makes a lot of good points, but I question the basis of his rating innovation by the number of new patents. I don’t know how the patent offices in China and Japan work, but here many patents are issued to large companies that are not really unique inventions at all, but attempts by corporations to control and benefit from real creations which may be later done by individuals. In other words, they will claim that they already invented it because they have successfully engaged in"carpet filing"of patents for very generic “inventions”.
  I can only imagine that predatory China, which blatantly steals so much intellectual property and technology, is much worse. Meanwhile corporate-dominated Japan probably gets Toyota Tundra loads of batch filings from its companies for a similar purpose to that done here in the US, that is to pre-empt real innovators from reaping the benefit of their creations. I will admit, though, that the Japanese are actually an original-thinking and hard-driving people.

Bob Flem

March 6, 2012, 9:09 a.m.

Many people know damn well the TRUE cause of this coming collapse and its not what the book says.

Lawrence Glickman

March 6, 2012, 9:08 a.m.

The demographics of the developed world coupled with the paralysis engendered by “legal” super pac corruption and lobbyists insure the continued decline of the USA unless the following steps are taken. We have allowed the banks to mark assets not to market but to some fantasy number and everything in the USA is now overpriced from a world pricing model, most notably medical care.“The truth will set you free” and unless we face a National write down and start over from a real cost basis our decline will be gradual until the breaking point of one more “Black Swan” event. There is no turning back we must open our Medical Markets to world pricing standards, use natural gas to become energy independent, invest in education. Allow those under water in business or real estate to FAIL and clear the books of dead assets and any company like GE that moves an entire “profitable” company division to China like they just did from Wisconsin to China should be required to show cause in court why this was necessary and a “Made in America” campaign must be instituted. No one economic theory will work

DAVID WEBB 35412

March 6, 2012, 8:32 a.m.

These intellectuals always circle around the problem but are too timid to be blunt.  At least, this author mentioned Charles Murray, author of the “The Bell Curve.”

America is in decline for many reasons but do not doubt these factors:

1. The unabated admission of Third Worlders to our shores.
2. Anti-achievement Affirmative Action laws rigorously enforced by our government’s EEOC.
3. The politicization of our educational system.

Willis Smith

March 6, 2012, 7:30 a.m.

When there are large cracks in the walls, the people living in the house need to work together to make the necessary repairs.  At present, our people are pulling on the walls and blaming everyone else that the cracks are getting bigger.  Unless we come together and solve our problems through sensible compromises, we are in for very hard times.  To quote one of our lesser historic figures, “A house divided against itself can not stand.”

Frederic MARI

March 6, 2012, 7:06 a.m.

Well, I am going to be the lone dissenting voice here.

I have no desire to kill myself at work (that’s ‘work’ as in ‘work’. Entrepreneurship or highly creative jobs or highly challenging occupations aren’t ‘work’. They’re paid self actualization) like South Koreans or push my kids as hard as the Japanese, with a potential high suicide rates as a by-result.

I want South Koreans and Japanese and Chinese to eventually live the same kind of lives we do. Not them dragging me down to their level… Which is what globalization is turning out to do…

OTOH, I am with Ferguson when it comes to the “viruses” (or most of them. We all laugh at ‘politically correct pseudosciences’ but what is History or anthropology if not someone else’s pseudosciences? but I am with him and the rest of the commentators when it comes to competition or lack thereof, for example).

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