Over My Shoulder

Alexander Ineichen: IR&M Update, Nov. 14

By John Mauldin

November 14, 2014

Been some time since we last looked at Alexander’s Momentum deck. A few warning signs are showing up.

Speed read: US consumer happy (page 23); China off the lows  (page 56); Japan at inflection point (page 58)
Summary: Negative economic bias persists. (page 2)
Top-down: Economic momentum is falling on a global level. (page 3) Leading indicators are stalling. (page 7)
Earnings: Earnings estimates, on a global level, are falling. (page 8) The fall is moderate though. (page 9)
PMIs: Remain above 50 and are stable. (pages 10-11)
Business sentiment: Peaked in April and has been falling ever since. (page 12)
Consumer sentiment: Peaked in June and has been falling ever since. (page 13)
Flation risk: CPI inflation seems to have reversed and is now rising. (page 78)
Financial risk: Financial risk is rising, generally. (page 82)
Sovereign risk: is rising in Latin America. (page 83)

Download - IRM_Update_2014_Nov_14.pdf

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