Chris Whalen is one of the smarter investing guys I know and one of the true experts on credit and banking. He is “go to” when I have questions. He is now managing director of Kroll Bond Rating Agency, a new rating agency formed in 2010 in an effort to bring some credibility to bond ratings.
 
Chris offers his forecast for 2015 through the lens of his perspective on the credit markets. Short for the typical forecast (3.5 pages) but very pithy:

“We suspect that investors are not going to regain confidence and be willing to take on new risk positions until the extent of the damage caused by rapid downward moves in commodity prices are known. Once we see the spread between high yield and Treasury debt start to close again, then we will know that the markets are regaining composure. Until then, deflation and the attendant risks caused by a sudden revelation about hidden debts will remain the chief concern for investors and policy makers in 2015.”