Over My Shoulder | Mauldin Economics

Over My Shoulder

Alexander Ineichen: IR&M Update, Sept. 12

September 12, 2014

The normally positive IR&M momentum monitor may be turning. This one has me thinking….

Speed reed: Leading indicators are stalling (page 5); Eurozone economic sentiment collapses (page 29); momentum not in Germany’s favour (page 30 and pages 33-34).
Thorough read: Speed read plus all other pages, including Newton’s law of motion (page 40) and Gaddafi’s prophecy (page 90).
Summary: Overall, changes have a negative bias. (page 2)
Top-down: Global economic momentum is back to improving. (page 3) Leading indicators are stalling. (page 5) Productivity is high and rising. (page 8)
Earnings: Earnings estimates, on a global level, are stalling a bit. (page 6)
Business sentiment: Has been falling since May. (page 9)
Consumer sentiment: Peaked in June and is now falling. (page 10)
Valuation: If you think equities are expensive, try bonds. (pages 72-73)
Hedge funds:Positive but modest performance. (page 74)
Flation risk: Borderline deflationary. (pages 77-79)
Financial risk: Financial risk based on market-based risk indicators is rising. (page 81)
Sovereign risk: Rising in Latin America. (page 82)

Download - IRM_Update_2014_Sep_12.pdf

Russia is approaching a brick wall

September 9, 2014

Art Cashin forwarded this to me, and I found it both interesting and disturbing. Russia is facing a crunch – and they don’t behave normally in such times. On another note, Belgium is now the third-largest holder of US treasuries. Say what? After a half-dozen inquiries to People Who Should Know, I find, strangely, that they all see the data but are not sure what it means. Probably some serious combination of Russian oligarchs, China trying to hide currency manipulation, and the same motive for the ECB. All in the last year. Exchanges and such make it easy to hide sources.

Download - Russia.pdf