Over My Shoulder | Mauldin Economics

Over My Shoulder

NFIB Small Business Economic Trends—July 2016

August 12, 2016

Dunk just sent me this month's NFIB report. It indicates the recovery has peaked absent something to change the situation. Both candidates, but especially Clinton, could hurt the small business environment. Both on trade but Clinton promises higher taxes and healthcare costs, plus more more bureaucracy, not exactly inspiring to small business. From the report:

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased 0.1 points to 94.6, still well below the 40 year average of 98. Four of the 10 Index components posted a gain, four declined and two were unchanged.  Examining each componentseparately, a fairly clear pattern of “peaking” appears, with the Index and 7 components all reaching their recovery peak in January 2015 and three otherspeaking in April 2015.  Job openings did not peak until January 2016.  The peaks have become quite clearly defined and, absent very significant developments on issues that business owners have now incorporated in their expectations, there is little reason to expect reversals.  This is a strong indication that the recovery has “matured” and is now in its last phase.  Overall, it produced a relative long period of growth even if subpar.  Major distortions in the real economy were avoided, only the financial markets exhibited excitement and, it would seem, unsustainable growth thanks to Federal Reserve policy.

Download - NMO1607.pdf