Over My Shoulder | Mauldin Economics

Over My Shoulder

Alexander Ineichen: Bad Equilibrium

July 19, 2014

Alexander Ineichen does these charts every week, and they really are something you need to look at at least once a month, to go through the world and see what markets and momentum are doing. This week he calls it “Bad Equilibrium.”  In short, 2014 GDP forecasts are falling, and the fall is accelerating; overall leading indicators are stalling, but the BRICs are rising; macro is rising.

The one-sentence summary of this update is: Emerging markets/Asia Pacific have improved while Europe has worsened; economic momentum has turned negative; CPI and PPI are rising; and financial risk is rising, notably macro risk.

Download - IRM_Update_2014_Jul_18.pdf

Jill Lepore: The Disruption Machine

July 14, 2014

This is a longer think piece on disruption and why it’s not an issue. Big dust-up between Harvard professors, but aside from the fun and name calling on other parts of the web (you can google if interested), this helps us get some perspective on the latest fad. My personal take is in the middle (surprise).

Download - disruption.pdf

Joan McCullough, 7-10-14

July 10, 2014

Sitting on the dock of the Nantucket Bay, watchin' the tide roll away –

And reading.... Joan McCullough, who is theoretically on vacation, but just can't help herself and feels compelled to write about this whole Espiritu Santo debacle. And is Joanie even greater when she's on vacation, or what?! Fun stuff on a pleasant July afternoon. After dodging death in a visual required landing in a fog that did not open up until after the altimeter passed under 100 feet, with the runway immediately below us, which meant put it down NOW in a little Cessna. No worries. So Portugal's problems are now in perspective, as I am here to enjoy them. At least as seen through Joan's invective-laden thoughts.

But this is just the sort of thing that brings about the fin de siecle. On the anniversary of the assassination of someone that no one cared about, which caused WW1.

Download - 140710_Joanie.pdf