September 12, 2014
The normally positive IR&M momentum monitor may be turning. This one has me thinking….
Speed reed: Leading indicators are stalling (page 5); Eurozone economic sentiment collapses (page 29); momentum not in Germany’s favour (page 30 and pages 33-34).
Thorough read: Speed read plus all other pages, including Newton’s law of motion (page 40) and Gaddafi’s prophecy (page 90).
Summary: Overall, changes have a negative bias. (page 2)
Top-down: Global economic momentum is back to improving. (page 3) Leading indicators are stalling. (page 5) Productivity is high and rising. (page 8)
Earnings: Earnings estimates, on a global level, are stalling a bit. (page 6)
Business sentiment: Has been falling since May. (page 9)
Consumer sentiment: Peaked in June and is now falling. (page 10)
Valuation: If you think equities are expensive, try bonds. (pages 72-73)
Hedge funds:Positive but modest performance. (page 74)
Flation risk: Borderline deflationary. (pages 77-79)
Financial risk: Financial risk based on market-based risk indicators is rising. (page 81)
Sovereign risk: Rising in Latin America. (page 82)