Over My Shoulder | Mauldin Economics

Over My Shoulder

Howard Marks: “There They Go Again ... Again”

August 22, 2017

The always must-read Howard Marks on the cryptocurrency craze. Elsewhere I read that a firm raised $250 MILLION CASH for a cryptocurrency offering that will launch a business renting out unused computer storage and pay you in its cryptocurrency. No current operations, no intrinsic value. And some of the giants in the Silicon Valley VC world put in $70 million. I am clearly way behind the times.

Download - there-they-go-again-again.pdf

Philippa Dunne: “The shape we’re in”

August 18, 2017

Camp Kotok Week – Day 5

From time to time my good friend and fishing buddy Philippa Dunne allows me to use their Liscio Report, which covers all things labor and intriguingly is the only source I know of that actually looks at tax revenues on a state-by-state basis in a real-time manner. Philippa like to drill down on states and regions and then drop back to look at overall impacts. She is one of my go-to people when I have specific questions about data. I find that she knows the answers to 99% of my questions; and if she doesn't, she knows where to look. So I thank her for allowing me to use her latest monthly essay during Camp Kotok Week. If you're interested in subscribing to her work, you can visit www.theliscioreport.com.

Download - TLR_8_14_17.pdf

Martin Barnes: “U.S. Fiscal Policy: Facts, Fallacies And Fantasies”

August 17, 2017

Camp Kotok Week – Day 4

Today, fishing buddy Martin Barnes of BCA Research has sent over a piece from behind their paywall that takes a hard look at the Trump administration's fiscal policy platform and finds it to be "a mix of facts, fallacies and fantasies." Martin states: "In this report, I will endeavor to illuminate the debate about fiscal policy with unvarnished official statistics, untainted by partisan biases." This is very welcome, much-needed, in-depth research. You can learn more about the work of Martin and his colleagues right here.

Download - US_Fiscal_Policy_-_Facts_Fallacies_and_Fantasies.pdf

David Rosenberg: Employment pops—on Venus, not Mars!

August 9, 2017

It's Camp Kotok Week, day two!

Fishing buddy and close friend David Rosenberg is famous for Breakfast with Dave, his daily letter, in which he analyzes almost everything. In keeping with the theme of Over My Shoulder looking at pieces from friends I have shared Camp Kotok with over the years, here is a good piece from Rosie this morning. It's an analysis of last month's employment numbers, and Rosie comes up with a few odd facts:

And while Household employment was up 345,000 jobs, it was all part-time – full-time positions actually shrank by 54,000 last month. Since April, full-time jobs are down 66,000 while part-time is up 302,000 – that is not the most effective way to generate personal income growth, that much is for sure. In fact, total work-based incomes only rose 0.3% compared to 0.5% in June, holding the YoY pace at 2.8% which actually is no better now than it was in the spring of 2010 to the summer of 2011 when the economy was so soft that the Fed was pumping endless liquidity into the financial system. Go figure….

Not that I'm a sociologist, but there seems to be a gender gap under way here as well. My recommendation is not to tell males how great the job situation is because employment for us guys fell 17,000 in July and is down 146,000 since April. The women are clearly wearing the pants in the family as female employment was up 362,000 in July alone and up by 503,000 since April. We haven’t seen something like this happen in at least five years, but Venus clearly has a smile on her face.

Download - Breakfast_with_Dave_2017_08_04.pdf

Peter Boockvar: Small business/Trade/Kazumasa Iwata

August 8, 2017

Today we kick off Camp Kotok Week here in Over My Shoulder. I'll feature pieces all week by my fellow economists/analysts/fishing buddies.

Let's lead off with Peter Boockvar, who I spent a great deal of time with while we were in Maine last week. Peter is one of my go-to guys when I am looking for analysis of data as to how it impacts the macro picture. He is deep in the weeds on almost everything. Peter runs submissions like the one I'm attaching to you 2 to 3 times a day.

I am sending this one to you because of what he writes in the last paragraph about Kazumasa Iwata, who may take over as head of the BOJ later this year. The point is that Iwata-san gave an interview to Reuters yesterday, talking about how the BOJ should potentially reduce its QE. And one of the important takeaways that I came back from Camp Kotok with is that the real thing we should be watching is the total amount of quantitative easing and potential tightening from all of the major central banks, not just the Fed. One of the things that all of us assumed at the camp was that, in general, if the BOJ did anything, it would likely be slow and deliberate, not a radical reduction like Iwata is now suggesting. Attention must be paid…

Download - 170808_Boockvar.pdf