Over My Shoulder

Recession? Soft Landing? Market Crash?
Here’s How to Prepare Today for What Comes Next...

“A slowing of the housing market, and thus the economy, is in our future… This, in turn, suggests that as [...] consumer spending slows, a bear market in equities is a high-probability outcome.”
— John Mauldin, March 2006

I wrote the sentence above, which today seems like an understatement, before most market watchers had any inkling of what would become the Great Financial Crisis.

At the time, my goal was to alert my readers to the possibility of economic and market pain ahead. I wasn’t the only one sharing this warning, but still, I’m proud I had the conviction to state it.

In short, my work seeks to answer the question, “What’s hiding on page 12 of the paper today or in some obscure research report that could become front-page news next month or next year?”

That’s the big picture from which my research begins….

And to survey the risks and the opportunities ahead, I spend my days reading a wide range of thoughtful opinions.

Several of them I agree with. Many I respectfully disagree with.

But with each new piece of research, I get a clearer view of the forces that could affect the market, policy, and individual investors over the next 1, 2, or 5 years.

In my free weekly newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline, I address many of these themes in broad strokes.

But for a select group of readers, I share the most critical pieces that cross my desk, along with a brief synopsis of the article.

My aim in Over My Shoulder is to help you position yourself for the types of seemingly unlikely scenarios (and their domino effects) that hide on the margins until they become very real, sometimes quickly.

In early 2015, for example, I wrote: “We have entered the Age of Transformation. We’re going to see the development of new technologies that will simply astound us… While riskier (potentially far riskier) than most of your investments should be, a basket of new-technology stocks should be considered for the growth part of your portfolio. I see the Age of Transformation as a 100% probability.

Now, I’m not suggesting I called the rise of the FAANG trade or of crypto, but my research clearly said speculative tech deserved consideration.

More recently, if I’d told you a few years ago that 2022 would hand us 9% inflation, the fastest rate hikes since Volcker, and a full-fledged kinetic war in Europe…

You would’ve laughed me out of the room.

Almost no one had these threats on their 2022 Bingo cards.

Regarding inflation, however, in February 2021, I wrote, “Coming on top of trillions already authorized in prior bills, a budget deficit that was already approaching $2 trillion before the pandemic, and the Federal Reserve stimulating in its own ways, people are asking whether this is too much. The answer depends on the Coronavirus’s “Gripping Hand.” If the vaccines work well enough and are administered widely enough to stop the new variants and enable economic normalcy later this year, all that money might be excessive. Rising consumer demand combined with supply constraints could spark inflation.”

Again, in retrospect, what I wrote then seems understated. At the time, CPI was 1.7%.

Likewise, few predicted that the energy renaissance would be the lone bright spot in the markets last year.

My point is, it’s often the threats and opportunities we don’t see that have the biggest economic impact on your portfolio.

That’s why seeking out new sources to broaden your outlook is so important for preparing yourself today.

Since I started sharing this research in Over My Shoulder, I’ve received plenty of kind letters:

“I am a better investor because of the insights I receive. Even good for cocktail party conversations!” —BT

“This has literally changed the way I read and consume financial/economic news and analysis.” —FL

“There is no other data accumulator that ALWAYS provides ‘must-read-and-ponder’ quality research.” —JH

“This is the single best source of information from many of the investment industry’s greatest thinkers.” —TH

I’m always grateful to hear folks feel better prepared because of this research.

But I also understand that time is short.

Prepare Your Portfolio for the Next Actionable Trend… in 8 Minutes or Less

Over My Shoulder is just as the name suggests.

It’s the closest thing to having access to the best of my library of macroeconomic research.

Each week, my trusted analyst Patrick Watson and I pore through 200 or more pieces of financial analysis.

That includes hard-to-find research from the world’s leading macroeconomists, political strategists, former Fed governors, and other top-level financial minds.

Together, Patrick and I spend dozens of hours reviewing these articles.

But our job is to boil these down to the 3–4 pieces you absolutely must see each week.

The pieces alerting you to the biggest macroeconomic risks and highlighting the hidden opportunities behind each one.

If the research reaches the high bar we’ve set, we send it straight to your inbox for your review.

More importantly, we pair this with a brief, easy-to-digest summary with the key takeaways.

If you’re pressed for time, you can review it in a minute or two.

If you’re interested and have the time, I provide the full article along with my annotations.

We’ve sifted it down to the 3–5 pages from the best and brightest that will truly make you a wiser, more prepared investor and raise your level of thinking.

Become a More Prepared Investor
for Just $9.95 per Month

For access to the research I subscribe to, many institutions invest tens of thousands of dollars each year. And given the depth and quality, I’d say it’s money well-spent.

But occasionally, because of the relationships I’ve built over the years, I get permission to share these hard-earned thoughts with my readers.

Now, you probably don’t have the need for that level of research (or the time to read all of it, frankly).

And given the state of the economy, that can be a difficult check to write.

However, for a modest monthly charge, I share the very best articles to help elevate your thinking and prepare you for potential risks in the economy.

If you want carefully curated information sent to your inbox several times each week, Over My Shoulder is exactly what you’re looking for.

Here’s what you receive when you join me inside:

  • 3 pieces of research—sometimes more—vetted by myself and Patrick every week, offering you an overview of the biggest macroeconomic risks and opportunities, which should take about 8 minutes a week to consume (likely less).

  • Unlimited access to the Over My Shoulder archives: Access to the kind of financial library that would be difficult to collate even if you had unlimited time and resources.

  • Instant access to your welcome bonus package, including special reports you can’t find anywhere else.

  • Material that allows you to rise above the “wisdom” of the crowd with a diverse collection of viewpoints on the most important economic topics of today

  • Savings of 33% on Over My Shoulder when you sign up today for just $9.95 a month. Your discount will be locked in for as long as you remain a subscriber.

  • 100% satisfaction guarantee: If you decide Over My Shoulder is not for you, you can cancel at any time.

Defend Your Portfolio and Capitalize on the Long-Tail

My goal is simple: give you the best information to protect yourself in the shortest amount of time.

With Over My Shoulder, I’m confident Patrick and I have accomplished that goal.

We’ve done our very best to boil it down to the essential points you absolutely need to know, right as it’s happening.

Today’s page 12 of the newspaper, as you know, can quickly become tomorrow’s trending theme. Putting you ahead of those shifts is exactly what Over My Shoulder seeks to do.

“For the price, it is by far the best research and sharing of information from other professionals that money can buy. Thanks again. It’s a joy to open and read each week.” —RS

“It’s the perfect amount of information. Deep enough to gain value, but brief enough to not rattle your mind during the work day.” —AD

“Over My Shoulders is my personal force field to deflect so much of the day-to-day financial news chatter and hype.” —JG

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