Nouriel Roubini, a.k.a. “Dr. Doom,” cofounder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, explores China’s rise as a great geopolitical power and examines how such transitions historically come with elevated risks to global order. Roubini describes what must happen if China and the world are to avoid a conflict no one wants.
Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, is a world leader in political risk assessment. He describes China’s prospects as more uncertain than those of any major economy on the globe. Bremmer thinks Xi Jinping’s bold and complex reform agenda may be what China needs but it carries serious risks and many potential conflicts.
Michael Pettis, economist, finance professor at Peking University and author of the popular China and Financial Markets blog, says China’s economic fate is ultimately in its own hands. Leadership can either embrace slower, healthier growth that leads to a sustainable “long landing,” or press on with the current model that will end with a “hard landing.”
Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research, offers a grounded perspective on the Chinese currency’s rapid internationalization, which he sees as central to Beijing’s reform agenda. To move beyond high-volume, low-margin exports, China must offer attractive financing terms to emerging market customers. The renminbi’s rise as a trade currency is key to the entire strategy.
Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision TV and author of The Global Macro Investor, warned in 2003 that China’s boom had a shaky foundation and would eventually collapse. In A Great Leap Forward? we see why he may soon be proven right.
Gillem Tulloch, founder of Hong Kong-based GMT Research, explains how debt-driven misallocation could push China to the edge of crisis. Despite Beijing’s best efforts to reform and rebalance the economy, in A Great Leap Forward? he explains why that crisis is now unavoidable
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has covered world politics and economics as a journalist for 30+ years. He currently writes for the Daily Telegraph. Ambrose thinks Beijing’s power to manage its debt burden is dwindling fast. With no safe way to deleverage the economy, Xi Jinping is rapidly running out of options. China’s troubles could well become our own.
Neil Howe, founder of Saeculum Research and best-selling author of The Fourth Turning is an expert on demographic change. Neil reveals how China’s one-child policy created a unique demographic cliff, which a new generation must navigate. Caring for China’s rapidly aging population will be a key challenge for the post-1970s “Peach Generation.”
Jack Rivkin, CIO of Altegris Investments, says Beijing is making huge strides in encouraging the development of intellectual property, but China is still not turning its intellectual property into innovations, and ultimately businesses, at the pace of the developed world. Technological advances will transform China’s economy in the coming decades, but that may not be enough to save it from an imminent crisis.
David Goldman, managing director at Reorient Group, says China’s rapid innovation combined with an entrepreneurial population may help it avoid the bust that usually follows debt-driven, extraordinary economic-growth miracles.
Jawad Mian, author of Stray Reflections, sees huge opportunity in what he calls “New China” as the country defines itself with technology, services, and retail. China’s real growth, Jawad argues, is not on the ground but in online e-commerce.
George Magnus, independent economic consultant and former UBS chief economist, explores the contradictions in Beijing’s plans to deleverage debt while maintaining economic growth. The key will be Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign. Without tough reforms, China could meet the same fate as the former Soviet Union.
Leland Miller, president of China Beige Book International, exposes the flaws in China’s state-generated economic data and shares a better way to assess the health of the otherwise opaque economy. He also explains why Beijing does not want to devalue the renminbi despite its exporters’ eroding competiveness.
Mark Hart, founder of Corriente Advisors, believes the People’s Bank of China will eventually choose to devalue the renminbi in order to avert a balance of payments crisis. Mark was one of the few investors to anticipate both the US subprime crisis and the European debt crisis. Could he be right once again?
Logan Wright, senior analyst at Medley Global Advisors, shows how nonperforming loans are pushing the Chinese banking system into “deliquification” and a scramble for cash.
Ernan Cui, consumer analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, unravels the connections between Chinese wages, consumption, and labor. She asks where the much-needed household spending boom will come from as middle-class income growth weakens. It’s a good question that, once again, leaves the burden on Beijing should the business cycle not agree with its stated reform objectives.
Andrew Batson, lead analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, explores the way China has tried to replace slowing export growth to developed countries with sales to other emerging markets. Rebuilding ancient “Silk Road” land and sea trading routes could be either a bold vision, or another wasted effort.
Simon Hunt, founder of Simon Hunt Strategic Services argues the world is already at war with the US and its allies on one side and China, Russia and their allies on the other. The conflict is currently financial and technological, but could spin out of control at any time.
Samuel Rines, analyst at Chilton Capital Management, explores the global implications of the “dual taper,” the simultaneous end of US Federal Reserve accommodation and China’s once-robust investment boom. The combination will have far-reaching consequences for the entire globe.
Jason Daw and Wei Yao, economists at Societe Generale, look at China from the perspective of foreign exchange strategy. They explore the renminbi’s near-term future and the policy choices Beijing must make in these volatile times.