Thoughts from the Frontline

Everywhere I go, people ask me what’s next for the economy. My answer depends on what they mean by “next.” Anything can happen next month. I’m much more confident about what we’ll see over the next 5-7-10 years: a painful debt crisis, a “Great Reset” and then a much brighter future as the economy normalizes and new technologies boost productivity and living standards.

In our age of constant interactivity, you could easily see a weekly letter like mine as a quaint one-way monologue. But in fact, I’ve always treated Thoughts from the Frontline as a conversation with friends like you. Sometimes we disagree, but we keep talking.

Our planet has a wide array of different political and economic systems. Some work better, so you’d think we would gravitate to those over time. But even now, we still have a lot of variety. What works in one place and time might not succeed in different conditions.

Turn out the lights, the party's over
They say that all good things must end
Call it a night, the party's over
And tomorrow starts the same old thing again

     - Willie Nelson

Today we continue reviewing Ray Dalio’s latest book, How Countries Go Broke. If, like me, you fear that you may soon live in such a country, Ray’s work reads like a guidebook to the future. But in fact, this future is just the latest iteration of a well-known debt cycle, one that is almost natural in its regularity.

Debt is a curse that can also be a blessing, depending on how the borrower uses it. Sadly, human nature seemingly ensures we often use debt unproductively—and not just as individuals. Governments have their own special way of using debt to buy benefits (and votes?) today that future generations will pay for.

Physicists have a concept called “entropy,” which basically says systems will tend to move from orderly to disorderly over time. Entropy is central to physics, thermodynamics, and other fields of physical science.

Monetary policy is a balancing act. The Federal Reserve’s “dual mandate” requires it to promote both maximum employment and stable prices. Statutorily, neither is more important than the other. The Fed is supposed to seek both at the same time.

No one wants to be a party pooper. It drives away friends and makes you generally unpopular. But if you are a monetary policymaker, ending the party before it gets too wild is quite literally your job.

We have no scarcity of economic challenges. Price inflation is high on the list, in part because we saw so little of it for so many years. Inflation’s return in 2021–2022 brought back memories for those (ahem) who lived through the 1970s. And not the pleasant kind. None of our generation wants to see the reruns of That ’70s Show.

I was in Newport Beach two weeks ago doing several video interviews with David Bahnsen. At the end of the interview, he mentioned the importance of having a proper “philosophy of investing.” Time was running out so I didn’t have the ability to unpack that.

If you are an investor, an economist, or really anyone who watches big trends, numbers are your friends. They help you understand events you can’t personally observe.