Economic Analysis

Mark Yusko Hits a Four-Bagger

Outside the Box

December 13, 2017

My friend Mark Yusko, founder and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, is a phenomenon; and when you read his third-quarter letter, excerpted in today’s Outside the Box, you’ll see what I mean. His missive (a 72-pager!), has two main parts: a “Letter to Fellow Investors” and Morgan Creek’s “Third Quarter Market Review and Outlook.”

Now, I could subject you to the latter, but the former is a heck of a lot more fun. It’s an amazing disquisition that takes us deep into the...

Automatic Job Storm Coming

Thoughts from the Frontline

December 9, 2017

Almost every weekday, some arm of the US government issues some sort of economic statistic. News media and financial analysts review and report it. Then 99.9% of the adult population, and probably 90% of the financial industry, forget all about it. And they’re probably right to do so.

3 Maps of South America That Explain Its Geopolitics


December 8, 2017

Does Amazon Create Jobs? Well, It Hired 75,000 Robots in 2017

Outside the Box

December 6, 2017

Like millions of other people, I am a fan and a user of Amazon. They do make buying things convenient, especially little things that you might have to go to art specialty stores to find. I’m a huge user of the Kindle app on my iPad, especially since I learned that I do not technically own the books I buy from the Apple bookstore. If I ever wanted to migrate away from an Apple product, I could not take my books that I purchased on Apple to a competing platform.

Not only can I do that with the...

Renovating the Fed

Thoughts from the Frontline

December 2, 2017

Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board…. Focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity…. Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.

– Stan Druckenmiller (hat tip Steve Blumenthal)

4 Political Maps of Europe That Explain Its Geopolitics


December 1, 2017

McKinsey: Automation may wipe out 1/3 of America’s workforce by 2030

Outside the Box

November 29, 2017

As I’ve been working on my new book, The Age of Transformation, the chapter on the future of work has been the most challenging one to think and write about; and so I’m always on the lookout for good thinking and new data. Now, McKinsey & Co. has come out with a comprehensive report on the predicted near-future effects of automation on employment.

International in scope, the report, entitled “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation,” takes us a big step closer...

The Bonfire Burns On

Thoughts from the Frontline

November 25, 2017

“Life invests itself with inevitable conditions, which the unwise seek to dodge, which one and another brags that he does not know, that they do not touch him; but the brag is on his lips, the conditions are in his soul. If he escapes them in one part they attack him in another more vital part. If he has escaped them in form and in the appearance, it is because he has resisted his life and fled from himself, and the retribution is so much death.”

– Ralph Waldo Emerson, “Compensation”...

Seeking Value in an Expensive World

Outside the Box

November 22, 2017

I am in Milan Malpensa and beginning a 17-hour journey back to Dallas for Thanksgiving.

But deadlines loom. This afternoon I got this brief note from good friend David Rosenberg, chief econ at Gluskin Sheff, and find myself nodding firmly in agreement. Rosie throws in a quick head feint by telling us that he’s not investing around Trumponomics at all, but then he dives into a really helpful examination of what we have to do to find value in today’s overvalued world.

Rosie will of course be...

Bonfire of the Absurdities

Thoughts from the Frontline

November 17, 2017

“Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.”
– Ecclesiastes 1:2, King James Version (attributed to King Solomon in his old age)