Economic Analysis

Yet Again?

Outside the Box

September 20, 2017

This week’s Outside the Box is from one of my favorite writers and analysts. Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital is simply an investing legend. He writes several “memos” a year on the world of investing, and I put quotes around the word memos because they are typically longer than what you would think of as a memo. This week’s selection is reduced from the full memo, which you can see here.

(And for those who are wondering what I omitted, Howard did a long section on Bitcoin that I had to edit...

The 5 Biggest Bubbles In Markets Today


September 19, 2017

Infographic: The Everything Bubble Is Ready to Pop


September 19, 2017

US Equities Are Destined For Negative Returns In The Next 7 Years—3 Assets To Invest In Instead


September 18, 2017

Pension Storm Warning

Thoughts from the Frontline

September 16, 2017

This time is different are the four most dangerous words any economist or money manager can utter. We learn new things and invent new technologies. Players come and go. But in the big picture, this time is usually not fundamentally different, because fallible humans are still in charge. (Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart wrote an important book called This Time Is Different on the 260-odd times that governments have defaulted on their debts; and on each occasion, up until the moment of collapse,...

On Swamp Draining in Texas, Florida … and DC

Outside the Box

September 13, 2017

For this week’s Outside the Box we have a two-parter of short essays. They are unrelated but equally important. First, in “Time to Drain the Fed Swamp,” Brian Wesbury and colleagues at First Trust make the case that it was the private sector, not the federal government or the Fed, that saved the economy after the Panic of 2008. The Fed has outgrown its britches, they argue, and it’s time to fill the Board of Governors chair and vice-chair positions with people who will hold the Fed to account...

The Future of the Global Economy

Thoughts from the Frontline

September 10, 2017

If you establish a democracy, you must in due time reap the fruits of a democracy. You will in due season have great impatience of public burdens, combined in due season with great increase of public expenditure. You will in due season have wars entered into from passion and not from reason…

– Benjamin Disraeli, prime minister of England, novelist

In any bureaucracy, the people devoted to the benefit of the bureaucracy itself always get in control, and those dedicated to the goals the...

How Investors Can Earn 7% Returns In A 2.5% World—Hint: It’s Not Dividend Stocks


September 7, 2017

Irving Fisher and Japan

Outside the Box

September 6, 2017

Outside the Box, for a number of new readers who have joined us, is a letter in which I feature someone else's work each week, and often it is a view contrary to mine. I have to continually remind readers that just because I include something in an Outside the Box doesn't mean that I agree with it. I think it pays us to read people we don't agree with.

John Maynard Keynes was an enormously influential economist, but some of his detractors complained that the opinions he expressed tended to...

3 Obvious Reasons You Should Invest In Peer-to-Peer Loans In 2017


September 5, 2017