Economic Analysis

Son of a Bubble

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 19, 2001

Is the stock market the Little Engine That Could? Have I blown it when I suggested you get out a few weeks ago as the Dow rises another 7% and the NASDAQ is up 10% since then and 30% since the recent bottom? Am I early or am I simply wrong? Is there something really different this time?

Hedge Funds & You

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 11, 2001

In today's e-letter I want to briefly give you an overview of the hedge fund and private offering industry and to show some of you how you may be eligible to participate in this investment arena. If you know what and where to ask, you can get information on private offerings, such as hedge funds, which may be of great interest to you.

What’s that Churning Sound

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 7, 2001

Today we area going to address two topics. The second will be what the numbers tell us about where the economy is headed.

But first, I want to go back to a letter I wrote a few weeks ago. In it, I suggested you get out of the stock market, as the data I am looking at suggests the market is due for a serious drop. That did generate a few negative responses, though not as many as I would have thought. Most were thoughtful comments.

But last week, after a discussion with my good friend Gary...

Bear Market Rally

Thoughts from the Frontline

April 27, 2001

Have we seen the bottom? Is it onward and upward? As I start this e-letter, the S&P and DOW are trying to top their recent highs. Will the S&P go through the 1250 resistance level? Is my short trade in jeopardy? Is it time to become a bull?

I will become bullish once again, but not yet, fellow traveler. While I cannot see around the Curve In The Road, I can read the warning signs. They keep telling us to watch out for bear traps.

Bond Market Detectives

Thoughts from the Frontline

April 23, 2001

Thanks for all the kind emails about my stomach problems of last Friday. I felt much better this weekend, at least well enough to begin to actually help my beleaguered wife with our house move which will culminate this weekend. Now let's see if I can recover from the bad neck pains due to the whiplash the bond markets have been giving us the last few weeks.

Bear Market Rally…Now What?

Thoughts from the Frontline

April 12, 2001

* I must correct an egregious typo in last week's letter. (And no, it was not my awkward use of prepositions.) I wrote: The economy will recover in the second quarter, and indeed it may be the 4th quarter before we see a turn-around. The software gremlins somehow removed the word NOT from that sentence. It should have read: The economy will *NOT* recover in the second quarter, and indeed it may be the 4th quarter before we see a turn-around.

Big difference, and I apologize for that...

How to Time Bonds

Thoughts from the Frontline

April 6, 2001

We are finally getting the bear market rally I have be writing about and hoping for. At least I think it is a bear market rally. Those who are buying this run must see something else Profiting From Greenspan and His Magic Rate Cuts:

Deflation Made Simple

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 30, 2001

This is an important e-letter. I have thought long and worked hard on it. Part two, which will offer some investment possibilities, will come next week.

The Tony Dorsett Economy

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 16, 2001

Since I wrote the last e-letter about my belief that we are now in a total bear market, the Dow has collapsed another 8%. The NASDAQ is down more. In this issue I want to follow up on some questions, review some previous important predictions and offer some advice. Also, we are going to follow up on high yield bonds and our sector models. I will make an effort to be brief with so much in our hopper.

Sea Changes

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 13, 2001

I have not written in a week or so, as my daughter was out on vacation and I found I could not send an e-letter correctly. That will never happen again, as this old dog is going to learn a new trick or two.

One of my readers wrote that my last e-letter took a long time to reach the conclusion that I had no clue, but that he appreciated my honesty. I hope I can satisfy him today as I take a leap and take a position.