Economic Analysis

Deflation Made Simple

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 30, 2001

This is an important e-letter. I have thought long and worked hard on it. Part two, which will offer some investment possibilities, will come next week.

The Tony Dorsett Economy

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 16, 2001

Since I wrote the last e-letter about my belief that we are now in a total bear market, the Dow has collapsed another 8%. The NASDAQ is down more. In this issue I want to follow up on some questions, review some previous important predictions and offer some advice. Also, we are going to follow up on high yield bonds and our sector models. I will make an effort to be brief with so much in our hopper.

Sea Changes

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 13, 2001

I have not written in a week or so, as my daughter was out on vacation and I found I could not send an e-letter correctly. That will never happen again, as this old dog is going to learn a new trick or two.

One of my readers wrote that my last e-letter took a long time to reach the conclusion that I had no clue, but that he appreciated my honesty. I hope I can satisfy him today as I take a leap and take a position.

Monet or Picasso?

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 28, 2001

The Millennium Wave Investor Sentiment Index is 77, and moving down.
The Millennium Wave Sentiment Momentum Index is 35.25, still trending down.
The Millennium Wave Sentiment Percentage Uptrends is 29.52, and has gone flat!

The Millennium Wave Sector Model has moved to Basic Services (RYBIX) from Energy Services (RYVIX). We entered and left Energy Services with a slight loss, so that means 7 of the last 8 trades have been losers. I still think the market is too volatile for sector...

Greenspan Interpreted

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 16, 2001

The Millennium Wave Investor Sentiment Index is 83, down somewhat
The Millennium Wave Sentiment Momentum Index is 42.25, still trending down
The Millennium Wave Sentiment Percentage Uptrends is 29.32, still leaping up!

The Millennium Wave Sector Model is still in Energy Services (RYVIX), with a small profit for a change, but after today, who knows? (comments below)

One Man’s Junk is Another Man’s Treasure

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 13, 2001

This is an important e-letter. Not only does it suggest things may get better sooner than I had previously thought, it will also be important in understanding the new Income Investment Model I will be introducing within a very short time.

Out of Africa

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 2, 2001

The Millennium Wave Sector Model has switched into the Rydex Energy (RYVIX) from the Internet fund (RYIIX). As I predicted, that trade lost money. We are now down 6 out of 7 trades for January alone, when "normal" would only see 2 or 3 trades in a month. This market is too volatile for sector rotation models, but this investment style will have its day before the end of the year. Patience, Dr. Siddique. We will get there.

Alan to the Rescue

Thoughts from the Frontline

January 26, 2001

The Millennium Wave Investor Sentiment Index is a red-hot 84.4, trending up
The Millennium Wave Sentiment Momentum Index is 46.6, trending down
The Millennium Wave Sentiment Percentage Uptrends is 23.75, leaping up!

The Millennium Wave Sector Model has switched into the Rydex Internet fund (RYIIX)

Your outspoken analyst is back from DC and the inaugural shindig. While I was there, I went to Baltimore and met with the editors and publishers of The Fleet Street Letter. They asked me to be...

The Peter Pan Market

Thoughts from the Frontline

January 19, 2001

I like airplane trips. They give me the time to read and think, free from phones and to-do lists. I have spent the last hour going over our lengthy investment sentiment numbers. And what I find is very interesting.

Bull or Bear?

Thoughts from the Frontline

January 12, 2001

The Millennium Wave Sector Model has switched into the Rydex Energy Services fund (RYVIX)

First, I can count to five. I know last issue I said the four most dangerous words are "This time it is different" -- is five words. But I meant to write "This time it's different." I promise you if you look at the punch ballot, you can see the dimpled chad which clearly indicates I meant to use the contraction. And besides, there was a crowd outside my office, etc. I hate it when I make mistakes so...