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Economic Analysis

World Money Analyst Update on Russia

Outside the Box

February 20, 2014

In last week's special Thursday edition of Outside the Box, World Money Analyst Managing Editor Kevin Brekke interviewed WMA contributor Ankur Shah on emerging markets, but they didn't touch on one very important emerging market: Russia. So this week I have brought Kevin back to sound out the views of Alexei Medved, WMA's Russia and CIS contributing editor.

And right off the top, Alexei tells us two significant and surprising things about the Russian market:

One should look at investing...

Notes to the FOMC

Outside the Box

February 19, 2014

Janet Yellen, the new Fed chair, has her admirers and her detractors. One unabashed admirer is my good friend David Zervos, Jefferies' chief market strategist, who during the past several months has taken to hollering "Dammit Janet, I love you!" He was at it again yesterday:

Last week was certainly a week for the lovers. Q's broke to new cyclical highs, spoos moved to within just a few points of all time record highs, and Friday was St. Valentine's day! It was all about LOVE, LOVE and LOVE!...

Appetite For Distraction

Things That Make You Go Hmmm...

February 17, 2014

In 1996 I fell in love.

The moment I landed in Charleston, South Carolina, on my way to a small barrier island 35 minutes away for a family vacation, I got that feeling in my stomach that this was a special place.

The Economic Singularity

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 15, 2014

I fully intended to write today about a recently released academic paper that illustrates nearly every bad idea currently being bandied about in the field of economics. The insidious part is that the paper is considered mainstream and noncontroversial. Simply reading it required me to up my blood pressure medicine dosage. It is going to take me a little longer to finish that letter, and I realized that it needs a certain setup – one that coauthor Jonathan Tepper and I conveniently wrote a few...

World Money Analyst Update on Emerging Markets

Outside the Box

February 13, 2014

You know that I roam the world (mostly by letting my fingers do the walking) in search of great pieces for Outside the Box. But for the next few weeks, on Thursdays, I'll be sending you special editions of Outside the Box that highlight the excellent research that is produced by our own Mauldin Economics writers and analysts.

World Money Analyst is a perfect example. Led by Managing Editor Kevin Brekke, WMA features research from analysts and money managers from around the globe. Today,...

50 Reasons We’re Living Through the Greatest Period in World History

Outside the Box

February 12, 2014

Yesterday I had a long leisurely lunch with my longtime friend and family consigliere Toby Goodman. Leisurely except that your humble analyst was allowing a few phone calls to interrupt our precious time.

“We were having lunch in this very restaurant [Piccolo Mondo in Arlington, his favorite haunt] in 1993. You remember what we were talking about?” he queried. I had to admit I didn’t, I wasn't surprised Toby did, because he remembers everything. That’s why he’s my consigliere.

“I don’t...

The End Of The Innocence

Things That Make You Go Hmmm...

February 10, 2014

Take a long, hard look, Janet.
The landscape over which you cast your eyes when you accepted the poisoned chalice prestigious role of Fed Chair changed last week — just two days before you were confirmed in a rather lovely ceremony.

A Most Dangerous Era

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 9, 2014

"In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.

"There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the...

Challenging the Consensus

Outside the Box

February 5, 2014

One of the most universal consensus calls in the markets today is that interest rates are destined to rise. Thirteen out of 13 major investment banks all think that interest rates for global fixed-income will rise this year. I get nervous when everybody is on the same side of the boat. And so does my good friend and business partner Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners in London. This week’s Outside the Box is another of his thoughtful essays, giving us five reasons why interest rates may...

Central Banker Throwdown

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 1, 2014

Those of us who have attained a certain age can remember being bombarded by commercials in which we were asked "Is it live or is it Memorex?" The thrust of the ad was that it didn't make any difference, that the tape recording was just as good as being there to watch that TV show live. Video recording technology was in its infancy, and the ability to play a movie whenever you wanted was really cool. Imagine being able to set a video recorder to record a TV show while you were away! … As long...