Subscribe to John Mauldin's
FREE Publication:

Thoughts From the Frontline

Sign up for John’s free weekly letter and join 1 million of his closest friends.

We will never share your email with third parties

Economic Analysis

Gave & Gave … and Hay

Outside the Box

May 21, 2014

My good friend David Hay, Chief Investment Officer at Evergreen Capital Management in Bellevue, WA, has saved me the trouble of writing an introduction to the two pieces you’re about to read, which are by Charles and Louis Gave, a father-son duo who are no strangers to the readers of Outside the Box and my Over My Shoulder. For the first time in many years, due to other commitments, neither father nor son was able to speak at our just-concluded Strategic Investment Conference (though their...

Special Updates from the Strategic Investment Conference: Day 3

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 18, 2014

By Worth Wray

Good morning from 30,000 feet, somewhere over the great American West!

I admit to being a little overwhelmed as I write to you on my way home from the Strategic Investment Conference. After three days with two dozen of the finest investors, economists, and political scientists anywhere in the English-speaking world, it is going to take me weeks to think through the real-world implications of all I have learned.

Special Updates from the Strategic Investment Conference: Day 2

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 16, 2014

By Worth Wray

Hello again from the Strategic Investment Conference in San Diego, California!

Special Updates from the Strategic Investment Conference: Day 1

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 15, 2014

By Worth Wray

Good morning from sunny San Diego, California!

As the sun rises on the second day of the Strategic Investment Conference, I am absolutely blown away. John and Altegris put on an amazing show, and this is simply unlike any investment conference I have ever attended.

EM Carry Trade Looks Vulnerable

Outside the Box

May 14, 2014

Last year, post-taper tantrum, the story was all collapsing BRIC walls and emerging-market doom. This year the so-called “fragile five” – Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa – the countries that were most vulnerable last year, are looking downright robust. Since their January lows, the Turkish lira has climbed 13%, the Brazilian real 10%, the South African rand 8%, and the Indonesian rupiah and Indian rupee 6% each. In the last two months, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up...

Are Valuations Really Too High?

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 10, 2014

The older I get and the more I research and study, the more convinced I become that one of the more important traits of a good investor or businessman is not simply to come up with the right answer but to be able to ask the right question. The questions we ask often reveal the biases in our thinking, and we are all prone to what behavioral psychologists call confirmation bias: we tend to look for (and thus to see, and to ask about) things that confirm our current thinking.

Don’t Ignore the Anecdotes

Outside the Box

May 7, 2014

Whenever I'm in New York I make a point of calling a number of my economist and investor friends and arranging a “dinner with interesting people.” Thankfully, Rich Yamarone is almost always at the table, because his insights into what's happening in the real economy, beyond Wall Street, are unrivaled.

Rich is Chief Economist at Bloomberg and the creator of Bloomberg's Orange Book, a compilation of key insights from CEOs, taken from quarterly earnings calls.  He is also part of the team of 7...

Is There a Biotech Bubble?

Outside the Box

May 5, 2014

I’m bringing you a special Outside the Box today to address a very specific question that is on many investor’s minds: is there a bubble in biotech? To answer that question, Patrick Cox, editor of Mauldin Economics’ Transformational Technology Alert, teases apart the data on stock performance in the biotech space and then goes beyond the data to show us how the unique characteristics of the sector bear on the question of bubble or no bubble.

The answer isn’t a simple yes or no, but...

A Yen for a Mortgage

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 3, 2014

For some time I have been saying that I was going to close the mortgage on my new apartment and then hedge it in yen. I promised to tell you the story, including what type of loan I got and how I am doing the hedge. This week I was finally able to pull the trigger. This topic will also let us re-examine why I think the Japanese yen is a screaming short. I am going to make this a shorter letter, as Amsterdam is calling, and it is a beautiful day. This is not a big think piece, but I think many...

Why Are So Many Boomers Working Longer?

Outside the Box

April 30, 2014

There has been quite a lot of controversy in recent years around the idea that older workers – whose numbers are growing – have been taking jobs away from younger ones. Their numbers have certainly increased dramatically: the percentage of the labor force that is 55 or older grew from 29.4% in 1993 to 40.3% in 2013. And the unemployment rates of those 55 and older have dropped much faster than for younger cohorts; in fact we have seen those who are older than 55 take “market share” from the...