Economic Analysis

Colorado Scattershots

Thoughts from the Frontline

September 2, 2017

Ask a child what he or she wants to be when they grow up, and you’ll probably get a standard answer: firefighter, doctor, teacher – all occupations we learn to recognize at an early age. Rarely do you hear a young one say, “I want to be a writer.” I don’t recall ever saying it. Yet here I am, with writing as one of my several occupations.

The Demise Of Libor Is Part Of A Massive Global Trend That Many Overlook


August 31, 2017

Boomers Are Turning 71—These 4 Charts Paint A Perfect Storm It Will Set Off For Investors


August 30, 2017

China: Q2 Early Look Brief

Outside the Box

August 30, 2017

Leland Miller is a leading expert on China’s financial system and a good friend. He and his colleagues publish the China Beige Book, which is actually a whole series of distinct products. They regularly interview (if memory serves correctly) about 2000 large Chinese companies in every sector to get a good idea of what is actually happening in the Chinese economy. There is nothing else like their work, and anybody who is investing large sums or who just does business in China gladly pays the...

All Things Bullish

Thoughts from the Frontline

August 26, 2017

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”

– Sir John Templeton

3 Massive Market Shifts Every Investor Should Have On Their Radar


August 25, 2017

Doesn’t Matter, Doesn’t Matter, Matters!

Outside the Box

August 23, 2017

In Outside the Box today, good friend and at various times business partner Steve Blumenthal reveals a very useful character flaw and follows up our shared experience at Camp Kotok with some perceptive observations about things he heard there that matter. He also shares his notes on a recent interview of Ray Dalio by Bloomberg’s Tom Keene and Mike McKee. Here, he says, is the stuff that matters most!

I really liked the theme he developed about matters and does not matter. When he writes the...

All Things Bearish

Thoughts from the Frontline

August 20, 2017

“There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side but the right side.”
– Jesse Livermore

“At least us old men remember what a real bear market is like. The young men haven’t got a clue.”
– Jeremy Grantham

Wages vs. Jobs

Outside the Box

August 16, 2017

In Outside the Box today, my good friend Gary Shilling draws some crucial distinctions with respect to wage and jobs and explains why our perplexing US labor market is actually quite rational. Gary shares with me a fundamental optimism regarding our prospects for long-term economic growth, and in this report he tells us why.

This kind of in-depth dissection of macro trends is what Gary is known for. You can learn more about subscribing to his monthly Insight report and take advantage of a...

What I Learned at (Economics) Summer Camp

Thoughts from the Frontline

August 12, 2017

All over America, kids who were fortunate enough to go to summer camp are busy telling mom and dad what they did. Their stories will be suspiciously incomplete, but that’s OK. We know they learned something.