Economic Analysis

The Overlords of Finance

Outside the Box

October 6, 2016

We keep having to find inventive new ways to describe the ever more extreme antics of our central bankers. In today’s OTB, good friend Danielle DiMartino Booth draws an interesting historical parallel in a valiant attempt to place post-Great Recession central bank activity in a comprehensible context.

She takes us back to the 20th-century era of World Wars and draws upon the thinking of Liaquat Ahamed, whose seminal work The Lords of Finance is said to have been inspired by that unforgettable...

Start Moving Some Dirt

Thoughts from the Frontline

October 2, 2016

“Economic stimulants produce Bridges to Nowhere. Strategic investment in infrastructure produces a foundation for long-term growth.”
– Roger McNamee

“Our American ancestors prioritized growth and investment in our nation’s infrastructure.”
– Cory Booker

“There are two Americas – separate, unequal, and no longer even acknowledging each other except on the barest cultural terms.”
– David Simon

The Islamic Hatred of Modernity

Outside the Box

September 28, 2016

I have for you a very interesting and unusual piece for this week’s Outside the Box. It is not that I do not regularly send things by authors who see the world differently from me, but I rarely delve into the political and geopolitical world.

My friend Dr. Woody Brock is one of the most brilliant game theory specialists that I know. He studied with the most accomplished game theoreticians in academia, and he regularly applies game theory to economics and investing.

It is no understatement to...

The BIS Warns on China

Outside the Box

September 21, 2016

I’ve been saying for the past couple years that the next recession here in the US will probably be triggered by an external macro event or cascade of events, coming out of Europe or China. Today’s Outside the Box sharpens our focus on China, which had already got quite a lot sharper with Michael Pettis’s piece in Outside the Box on Sept. 2.

Today’s post comes from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the London Telegraph. He is commenting on the recently released quarterly report of the Bank for...

Negative Rates Nail Savers

Thoughts from the Frontline

September 14, 2016

“You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.”

– William Jennings Bryan, July 9, 1896

“You shall not crucify the retiree and saver on a cross of negative rates.”

– John Mauldin, September 14, 2016

Calling an Economic Audible

Thoughts from the Frontline

September 11, 2016

Dear Friends,

Now is the time I would normally be sending you Thoughts from the Frontline, but this week I’m calling an audible. Rather than leave you wondering, I’m sending this short note to explain the new game plan.

BioTime Makes History with Announcement of First Stem Cell Spinal Cord Therapy Results

Outside the Box

September 7, 2016

As my regular readers know, I am heavily focused on the massive monetary policy errors that are being foisted on the world by central bankers. This is not going to end well. My letter this weekend will probably be one of the most controversial that I have ever written, and I will probably lose a few longtime readers from the Federal Reserve. (Yes, some of them actually read me, probably more for the humor than the instruction, and for talking about me around the water cooler). For this week’s...

Monetary Mountain Madness

Thoughts from the Frontline

September 4, 2016

“Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”
– John Maynard Keynes

Does It Matter If China Cleans Up Its Banks?

Outside the Box

September 2, 2016

It has been a while since we have taken a close look at China. After the dustup with Chinese “depreciation” about this time last year and all the hysteria, all eyes have been trained on the rest of the world. It has been only a little more than a year since we published the book I co-wrote with Worth Wray on China, which we called “A Great Leap Forward?” The title was meant to be ironic, because the original Great Leap Forward imposed by Mao in the ’60s was one of the most economically...

Six Ways NIRP Is Economically Negative

Thoughts from the Frontline

August 29, 2016

“Positive anything is better than negative nothing.”

– Elbert Hubbard

“Once you replace negative thoughts with positive ones, you’ll start having positive results.”

– Willie Nelson