Economic Analysis

Why is RiskHedge changing?


May 20, 2019

Instead of the usual weekly essay, below you’ll find an interview between me and RiskHedge Editor-in-Chief Dan Steinhart. In it, we give you a “behind the scenes” look at an exciting change taking place at RiskHedge, and what it means for you.

Takeaways from the SIC

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 17, 2019

There are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, “Morning, boys, how’s the water?” And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes, “What the hell is water?”

—David Foster Wallace, This Is Water

Your Pension May Be Monetized

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 10, 2019

One difficulty in analyzing our economic future is the sheer number of potential crises. When so much could go wrong (and really right, when the exponential technologies I foresee get here), it’s hard to isolate, let alone navigate, the real dangers. We are tempted to ignore them all. Ignoring them is usually the right response, too. We can “Muddle Through” almost anything.

The dumbest thing you can do with your money in 2019


May 6, 2019

When was the last time you took a cab?

Time to Change Strategy

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 3, 2019

My recent letters described what I think the future will look like. I hasten to add, it isn’t what I think the future should look like or what I want to see. Almost the entire developed world has painted itself into a corner.

The surefire way to make millions in America


April 29, 2019

How much would you pay to make your kids happy?

How I Learned to Love the Debt

Thoughts from the Frontline

April 26, 2019

The US, Europe, and most of the developed world on are the road to Japanification. Like I wrote last week, we will see financial repression, ever increasing deficits, slower growth, etc. Essentially, the rest of us will begin to look like Japan with its astronomical deficits and ultra-dovish monetary policy.

When a law is a lie


April 22, 2019

There’s a big lie about disruption going around...

The Rules Will Change but That’s (Probably) OK

Thoughts from the Frontline

April 19, 2019

“But the emperor has nothing at all on!” said a little child.

Two gorillas are fighting to disrupt your fridge


April 15, 2019

The $1.5 trillion grocery market is about to be turned on its head...