Economic Analysis

Muffins, dogs, and self-driving cars


December 17, 2018

America’s top researchers were stumped. How do you teach a computer to “see?”

The Misunderstood Flattening Yield Curve

Thoughts from the Frontline

December 14, 2018

Everybody is suddenly talking about the inverted yield curve. They’re right to do so, too, but alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is a historically reliable but early recession indicator. The yield curve isn’t saying recession is imminent, even if it were fully inverted, which it is not.

The secret weapon for getting America 5G ready


December 10, 2018

Who sells the basics? That’s the first question I answer when evaluating an investment trend.

European Threats

Thoughts from the Frontline

December 7, 2018

Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember.

One controversial stock to buy… and one to avoid


December 3, 2018

Today we check back in on two of my most controversial calls…

Pyramids of Crisis

Thoughts from the Frontline

November 30, 2018

In an increasingly divided world, we all share one great desire: self-preservation. Not just humans, either. The survival instinct exists in almost every living thing. Humans simply have greater ability to do something about it.

When Will the US Get Attacked in Space?


November 26, 2018

Object 2014-28E gave the US military quite a scare.

Double Debt Problem

Thoughts from the Frontline

November 23, 2018

The selloff in GE is not an isolated event. More investment grade credits to follow. The slide and collapse in investment grade debt has begun… (and later) Don’t be fooled by bond prices holding up, because trading volumes are down. There are fewer bids in the market, and the dispersion of bids is wider. It is time to jog—not walk—to the exits of credit and liquidity risk.

- Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners Chief Investment Officer

Who deserves your trust?


November 19, 2018

I pose this question because CEOs of the world’s most powerful companies are asking it every day.

Seventh-Inning Debt Stretch

Thoughts from the Frontline

November 16, 2018

Science tells us energy can neither be created nor destroyed within a closed system. Whatever amount is there will stay the same, though it might change form. If only the same were true for debt.