Economic Analysis

Unemployment Blues

Thoughts from the Frontline

August 3, 2001

Today we learned that unemployment has held steady at 4.5% for the month of June. I happened to be watching TV as the announcement was made, and immediately I learned from the resident cheerleader that this was good news as it signals that we are poised for a turn-around in the economy.

The Case of the Missing Bottom

Thoughts from the Frontline

July 26, 2001

This letter has some pretty important analysis, if I do say so myself. I tell you how we will recognize the bottom, and what can happen between now and then. You might want to forward this one to your friends.

Recession Blues

Thoughts from the Frontline

July 13, 2001

I laugh in the face of superstition over Friday the 13th. Nothing can be as scary or unpredictable as the stock market has been lately. Following these markets on a daily basis makes Jason seem tame. If you really want to see blood, you need to spend some time reading the recent economic reports.

Cause for Optimism?

Thoughts from the Frontline

June 30, 2001

If you are confused by the blizzard of news that came out this week, then you are in great company. The level of disagreement among analysts and investors is becoming more and more shrill. How could PMC Sierra show such really bad numbers, get downgraded across the board, and open up 5% on the day? With all the bad telecom news, how could Lucent and JDS be going up?

Buying Time

Thoughts from the Frontline

June 22, 2001

Today, I want to welcome several thousand new readers. Many of you came from Bill Bonner's Daily Reckoning or from the Fleet Street letter, and others from the Association for Investor Awareness. I appreciate Executive Director Mike Casson's enthusiastic endorsement. Plus, a number of other web site's have been following my ruminations on Faith and History and have posted links. And, as always, we continue to grow mainly from referrals of loyal readers. I am thankful for the support.

Faith, Part II

Thoughts from the Frontline

June 8, 2001

I would have to count myself as a member of the Rick Nelson School of Writers. For the benefit of younger readers and at the risk of dating myself, Rick was the son of Ozzie and Harriet Nelson who went on to become a teen singing idol and one of my favorites as a kid.

Investing on Faith

Thoughts from the Frontline

June 1, 2001

Faith is an interesting thing. "The substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen," said Paul. Invisible though it may be, faith makes men do things that all the facts in the world, lined end upon end, could not provoke them to do.

Tiny Bubbles?

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 25, 2001

This week I want to welcome 500 or so new readers, many at the suggestion of my old friend and sushi partner, Tony Sagami. Lately we have been getting a lot of referrals from readers and other investment writers, and I am grateful for the growth. I do spend a lot of time researching and writing this letter. It is nice to have someone recommend my writing to a friend or colleague.

Son of a Bubble

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 19, 2001

Is the stock market the Little Engine That Could? Have I blown it when I suggested you get out a few weeks ago as the Dow rises another 7% and the NASDAQ is up 10% since then and 30% since the recent bottom? Am I early or am I simply wrong? Is there something really different this time?

Hedge Funds & You

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 11, 2001

In today's e-letter I want to briefly give you an overview of the hedge fund and private offering industry and to show some of you how you may be eligible to participate in this investment arena. If you know what and where to ask, you can get information on private offerings, such as hedge funds, which may be of great interest to you.