Economic Analysis

Of Deficit and Dollar Directions

Thoughts from the Frontline

April 5, 2002

Two summers ago, I went on an Alaskan Cruise with #2 daughter. One of the highlights was flying by helicopter to several glaciers. Seeing the huge valleys these glaciers had dug into the bare rock of massive mountains was impressive.

Why Investors Fail

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 28, 2002

Like all the children from Lake Wobegon, I am sure all my readers are above average investors. But I am also sure you have friends who are not, so today we will look at the reasons why they fail at investing. Maybe this week's e-letter will give you some ways to help them. And as we conclude, I will show you a simple way to put yourself in the top 20% of investors. This should make it easier to go to family reunions and listen to your brother-in-law's stories.

Inflation Rhythms

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 22, 2002

"History does not repeat itself," said Mark Twain, "It rhymes." That observation has a great deal of truth in it. Lately, however, economic history has been more like the cacophonous poetry of the Beatnik generation than the smooth resonating sounds of classic iambic pentameter.

King Dollar and the Guillotine

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 15, 2002

Today we are going to get practical. I will show you where to double your money market returns with government guarantees. We will look at one of my favorite US banks which is paying up to 7.75% for three-month CDs. (And yes, of course there's a story behind that number.) As promised for weeks, we are finally going to look at the prospects for King Dollar to remain on the throne.

Investment Wind Changes

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 8, 2002

When you are sailing, it is important to know where the wind is blowing. You have to change the position of your sails as the wind changes.

Gold Forecast

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 1, 2002

Today we are going to think about what lies in the future for the yellow metal -- that barbarous relic:


. Long time readers know that I am no gold bull. Indeed, I have been bearish to neutral on gold for over a decade. However, a number of economic trends are causing me to re-think my position. I believe the case I lay out is one you will not have read from the usual gold bug suspects. I even give you a new way to play the gold market that should do well for you even if I am wrong.

Nuclear Waste or Gold?

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 22, 2002

Long time readers have been asking me to re-visit some of my old themes and recommendations. Today we are going to visit our old friends, The Three Amigos , to see what these historically accurate indicators have to tell us about the direction of the economy. Is it safe to get back in the water? I suggest a special way to invest in high yield bonds that you don't want to miss.

Economic Denial

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 15, 2002

Reader response to my prediction that we are in the Muddle Through Economy has been interesting. While most readers seem to agree, a few think I am being too pessimistic and we are poised for a boom and many of you think we are headed for a far worse economic scenario.

Bull Market or Gloom and Doom?

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 8, 2002

My theme for the last few weeks has been that we are in the Muddle Through Economy -not much downside but not much upside. The data this week reinforces my point. Today we will look at the evidence that continues to mount.

The GDP Waltz

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 1, 2002

What an amazing week. The data deluge as I came back into the office from Florida was staggering, and I write this letter late at night after a day of reading and thinking.