Economic Analysis

Will America play its trump card in the trade war?


June 10, 2019

Depending on how America’s trade war with China shakes out... it could produce huge stock market profits... OR losses.

Ray Dalio Is Kinda, Sorta, Really Wrong

Thoughts from the Frontline

June 7, 2019

“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed, the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually slaves of some defunct economist.”
John Maynard Keynes

Two big updates on the 5G rollout in America


June 3, 2019

It’s always great to talk with RiskHedge readers face-to-face…

The Trump Trade War Recession?

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 31, 2019

Publisher’s Note: John Mauldin is recovering from a minor illness. He’ll be back next week. Meanwhile, with trade disputes still roiling markets, below is a still-timely letter he wrote last year. You should definitely read it again. Ed D’Agostino

The end of the bank


May 28, 2019

For the first time ever, banks’ grip on money is slipping away.

Why Debt Won’t Spark Inflation

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 24, 2019

Modern technology was supposed to make travel less necessary. We can meet by phone, video, and now in virtual reality. But we’re still traveling more than ever. I certainly am.

Why is RiskHedge changing?


May 20, 2019

Instead of the usual weekly essay, below you’ll find an interview between me and RiskHedge Editor-in-Chief Dan Steinhart. In it, we give you a “behind the scenes” look at an exciting change taking place at RiskHedge, and what it means for you.

Takeaways from the SIC

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 17, 2019

There are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, “Morning, boys, how’s the water?” And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes, “What the hell is water?”

—David Foster Wallace, This Is Water

Your Pension May Be Monetized

Thoughts from the Frontline

May 10, 2019

One difficulty in analyzing our economic future is the sheer number of potential crises. When so much could go wrong (and really right, when the exponential technologies I foresee get here), it’s hard to isolate, let alone navigate, the real dangers. We are tempted to ignore them all. Ignoring them is usually the right response, too. We can “Muddle Through” almost anything.

The dumbest thing you can do with your money in 2019


May 6, 2019

When was the last time you took a cab?