Economic Analysis

Japanified World Ahead

Thoughts from the Frontline

April 12, 2019

Regular readers may have noticed me slowly losing confidence in the economy. Your impression is correct and there’s a good reason for it, as I will explain today. The facts have changed so my conclusions are changing, too.

Our rare chance to buy the #1 self-driving car stock for practically nothing


April 8, 2019

Are you invested in self-driving cars yet? If not, I hope you’ll read this issue carefully.

Capitalism Gone Wild

Thoughts from the Frontline

April 5, 2019

Recession is coming. We can debate the timing, but the economy will turn decisively downward at some point. My own analysis, looking at the data available on April 4, says recession isn’t likely this year but unfortunately looks very probable in 2020.

The dangerous side of “safe” stocks


April 1, 2019

There’s a good chance you pay through the nose to keep your money safe.

Recession Signs Everywhere

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 29, 2019

This month, the Federal Reserve joined its global peers by turning decisively dovish. Jerome Powell and friends haven’t just stopped tightening. Soon they will begin actively easing by reinvesting the Fed’s maturing mortgage bonds into Treasury securities. It’s not exactly “Quantitative Easing I, II, and III,” but it will have some of the same effects.

This little stock drinks from a firehose of government money


March 25, 2019

Brett Velicovich had one job: Hunt down the most dangerous terrorists in the world.

No Free Lunch, Part 2

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 22, 2019

Matching the stock market’s long-term average returns sounds like it should be easy, if you’re patient enough. But in fact it is remarkably difficult. In last week’s letter, Ed Easterling and I showed you why it is a longshot bet in almost every market environment. Returns over a decade or two are usually well above or well below average. Most of all, it’s fairly predictable which side of average will occur.

This stock is America’s 5G “landlord” … and it pays a 3.8% dividend


March 18, 2019

I want to tell you about a 5G stock that could easily double within two to three years.

No Free Lunch: Valuation Determines Return

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 15, 2019

Last week, I described the enormous challenges retirees face. One reason for that, aside from insufficient savings, is that markets haven’t delivered the returns many experts said we could plan on.

How the Green New Deal could hand you 300% profits


March 11, 2019

It will lead to a big boom in a beaten down stock… one that soared 3,000% the last time it was launched into a bull market.