Economic Analysis

What to do with your money in a bear market


January 7, 2019

“Sell everything, I can’t take anymore!”

My stockbroker friend got a phone call from a hysterical client on Christmas Eve.

The Year of Living Dangerously

Thoughts from the Frontline

January 4, 2019

Double, double, toil and trouble;
Fire burn and cauldron bubble.

…By the pricking of my thumbs,
Something wicked this way comes.

- William Shakespeare, Macbeth, Act IV, Scene I, 1606

A special peek behind the curtain at RiskHedge


January 2, 2019

Instead of the usual weekly essay, I’m sharing a lively “behind the scenes” conversation I recently had with RiskHedge Chief Investment Officer Chris Wood. He’s the smartest guy I know when it comes to investing in early stage disruptive companies.

Bear Markets, Fed Mistakes, and Quick Shots from John

Thoughts from the Frontline

December 28, 2018

A winters day,
In a deep and dark December…

“Wait, it doesn’t feel like winter. It’s not deep and dark, and it’s actually warm, and the sun is shining. Toto Shane, I don’t think we’re in Kansas Texas anymore.”

Buy this small stock that turns data into cash


December 26, 2018

Every time you shop online, use your phone for driving directions, send an email, browse Facebook (FB), or watch YouTube… you’re generating data that savvy companies turn into cash.

Powell, the Third Mandate, the New Fed and Crawdads

Thoughts from the Frontline

December 21, 2018

We have reached the best time of year, when we can look to the future with hope. We can stop wondering what will happen in 2018 and look forward to 2019. The investment industry always does this enthusiastically, as you will see in forecasts everywhere the next few weeks.

Muffins, dogs, and self-driving cars


December 17, 2018

America’s top researchers were stumped. How do you teach a computer to “see?”

The Misunderstood Flattening Yield Curve

Thoughts from the Frontline

December 14, 2018

Everybody is suddenly talking about the inverted yield curve. They’re right to do so, too, but alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is a historically reliable but early recession indicator. The yield curve isn’t saying recession is imminent, even if it were fully inverted, which it is not.

The secret weapon for getting America 5G ready


December 10, 2018

Who sells the basics? That’s the first question I answer when evaluating an investment trend.

European Threats

Thoughts from the Frontline

December 7, 2018

Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember.