Economic Analysis

Postcards from the Frontline

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 27, 2020

Unprecedented events are happening so fast, I barely know where to start. But let’s begin with a small one, noticeable perhaps only to me.

The disruption that handed investors 2,718% and 1,066 gains is repeating itself

Editorial

March 23, 2020

I’m holed up here in Ireland with my wife and daughter, working from home.

The Beacons Are Lit

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 20, 2020

In the film version of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, there’s a three-minute scene you should watch or re-watch. It is relevant to our situation today. Gondor needed to light the beacons for aid.

Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War.

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 19, 2020

This is a short midweek note, something I haven’t done for years. But as we all know, these are very special and difficult times.

Important: what to expect in phase 2 of the sell-off

Editorial

March 16, 2020

You hear from me every Thursday... but today is different. 

Coronavirus Helicopter Money

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 13, 2020

I write this letter early Friday morning after a week in New York visiting with many fellow market participants. And lots of phone calls, both to analysts and medical experts. I had originally planned a completely different letter but circumstances changed.

The key question smart investors must ask right now

Editorial

March 9, 2020

You can’t escape it…

Chinese Coronavirus Changeup

Thoughts from the Frontline

March 6, 2020

In baseball, there is a kind of pitch called the “changeup,” designed to look like a fastball while actually going slower. The deceived batter swings too soon and misses. Strike, you’re out. The world has thrown a wicked biological changeup at the global economy.

The avalanche has begun, and there’s no stopping it

Editorial

March 2, 2020

What did you do last night?

If you’re like the vast majority of Americans, you probably watched TV.

COVID-19: A Crisis the Fed Can’t Fix

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 28, 2020

For the last 3+ years, I have maintained it would take an “exogenous” event to send the United States into recession. Historically suboptimal growth? Sure, but sub-3% growth isn’t a recession.