Seeking to Understand Energy, Macro, and More…
- Ed D'Agostino
- Global Macro Update
- April 21, 2023
Do the days and weeks seem shorter to you lately? Maybe that’s an unkind feature of getting older. I have so much more I want to learn and understand, and not enough time to process it all.
I’m (happily) buried in macroeconomic and geopolitical research as I prepare for the Strategic Investment Conference. Today, I’ll share notes on three important sessions I’ll be moderating.
First, my friend Sam Rines of Corbu Research has set up a panel on oil. He’s bringing Jan Stuart of Piper Sandler and Joshua Young of Bison Interests along with him. Between the three, there isn’t a question about oil they cannot tackle.
The main questions I’ll be posing, as suggested by Sam:
Where is future demand for oil coming from?
Where is the supply coming from?
Can the EU nations survive long term without Russian petroleum?
I have a hard time seeing demand for oil dropping in the next few years, as some predict. We all know what happened in the US when COVID ended. It was (and still is) party time. We bought boats, cars, RVs, and plane tickets. Is there any reason to think China’s 1.5 billion people won’t do the same? Even in the face of a predicted recession in the West, won’t demand from China compensate for a shallow dip in the West?
OPEC just announced a reduction in production targets (which members were not meeting anyway) and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is still not being replenished. The SPR is down over 34% from a year ago. Can the US produce more? How long will it take to bring additional US production online and is there the will and incentive to do so?
This will be an important discussion for investors. Josh has been forthcoming about where he sees profit opportunities in the energy sector, and Sam and Jan have their own ideas. This discussion alone should cover the cost of SIC admission.
Macro with Felix Zulauf
Preparing to interview Felix, among the world’s top macro analysts, is daunting… especially when sitting (virtually) in front of the world’s smartest audience.
Felix is a master at identifying and interpreting cycles. Business cycles, conflict cycles, and credit cycles. The views he shared at SIC 2022 changed my approach to long-term investing, for the better. His updated forecast for 2023, and even more so 2024, stands to do the same for you.
The final day of our conference has a geopolitical focus. I’m honored to kick the day off with pollster and political strategist Dr. Frank Luntz, along with former US presidential candidate Andrew Yang.
Frank is simply a blast to be with. A near-death experience boosted his joie de vivre. It’s also made him more focused on effecting change. His insight into what’s happening in the electorate is not to be missed.
I’ve interviewed Andrew Yang and find him to be thoughtful, creative, and passionate about the US. I don’t agree with all his ideas, but I am impressed by his intellectual flexibility and his commitment to finding common ground. He’s a straight shooter (like Frank), and he points out many problems with our government’s structure. For example, in his book Forward, he notes that members of Congress spend from 30% to 70% of their time raising money. The job is not about being in office. The job is about staying in office.
I’m excited about this panel—these two have something important in common: They both share a deep love for the United States. They care about what happens here. You may disagree with either or both of them. That’s fine. The point I want to make with them is this: Americans have more in common with each other than we think. We need to wake up to that fact, while we still have time.
Later in the day, SIC attendees will hear about serious global risks to our nation, from the deepening alliance of China and Russia to changes in global commerce and payments (which exclude the US dollar).
Finding common ground at home, fixing what can and should be fixed, mustering the political will to make hard decisions… if we do some of this now, it will make the inevitable medicine less bitter in the future.
I hope you’ll join me at this year’s Strategic Investment Conference, our 19th. I haven’t mentioned some of the others you’ll hear from, including perennial favorites Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, Howard Marks, and Joe Lonsdale, to name but a few.
Join us—here’s a link to the registration page.
I’ll see you live, online, beginning May 1. Bring your questions!
Publisher & COO