Global Macro Update Archive

This week we continue our series on the major causes of our K-shaped economy. To recap, three big components of the economy are growing in cost more quickly than the rate of inflation or wage growth, and have for decades. We've covered two. First housing, then higher education. Now we look at the biggest and perhaps messiest of the three: healthcare.

Ask anyone under 30 whether college is worth it, and you might get a long stare before you get an answer. Most people seem to agree: the cost is too high, and many believe degrees have been devalued and education politicized.

This week we continue our series looking at the big life expenses that have outpaced the rate of inflation over the past several decades. Last week we covered housing. This week, let’s take a look at higher education. There’s a lot to look at.

Google searches for "can I afford a home" are at their highest level in nearly two decades. While a Google search on its own isn't proof of anything, millions of queries might be a proxy for the national vibe. Right now, the vibe is that millions of people are calling into question whether they still have a shot at home ownership. The vibe happens to line up with the actual data.

Last week's issue generated more thoughtful replies than we expected. What struck me wasn't that some of you disagreed with a point or two. It was what you agreed on. Almost nobody argued that nothing had changed. The debate was over why.

For roughly three decades after World War II, worker pay rose almost one-for-one with productivity. As the economy grew, so did wages. That allowed a single income to buy a house, two cars, and take the family on vacation every year. Then, around 1979, it stopped.

I was talking recently with a CEO I know. He runs a company worth about $3 billion—thousands of employees, dozens of manufacturing plants spread across the US and Asia .

Do you ever feel like you’re being steamrolled by change? Everywhere we turn, we see mind-blowing advances that make our childhood years feel like a bygone era.

Here’s a number that should get your attention: 25%.

I sat down with Jacob Shapiro this week, my go-to expert on all things geopolitics, to talk about what’s unfolding in the Middle East after the coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

This week I sat down with Eric Fine, who manages emerging market bond portfolios at VanEck. Eric has over 30 years of experience dedicated solely to emerging markets debt, and he makes an argument that, once you hear it, is hard to shake.

I’ve been tracking economic trends and reading economist reports for three decades. The post-COVID period ranks among the most unclear of my career when it comes to economist consensus.