Global Macro Update Archive

This might just be my favorite interview of the year. I will humbly admit to learning more about technical analysis from my recent conversation with Jeff deGraaf than I had in the previous two years.

It seems everyone is thinking about artificial intelligence.

If two people you respect recommend the same book to you, do you order it?

The CNN Fear and Greed Index hit “Extreme Fear” territory this week—or what you might call full-blown panic territory.

If you’d told me twenty years ago that we’d soon see rockets launching into orbit every day-and-a-half, I’d have smiled politely and changed the subject.

Your year was either great or awful.

Everyone is wondering if we’re in another tech bubble.

Many of you are Fed watchers, by nature of your jobs in finance, but the vast majority of Americans know little about the Fed, its role in the economy, or the impact of its balance sheet. Everyone in the latter group, this essay is for you.

We’re living through an extraordinary time. The global economy, markets, technology, and politics are all shifting at once, bringing both opportunity and risk.

There’s a concerning undercurrent running through the US labor market. The unemployment rate has been steadily climbing. That’s unusual. Typically, when unemployment goes up, it spikes.

The newest member of the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran, recently outlined his reasons for wanting interest rates to come down by roughly 2 percentage points—far more than any other Fed member.

On Wednesday the Department of Energy announced it is expanding its Quantum-in-Space Collaboration and adding new partners, including IonQ (IONQ) and Honeywell (HON) (the majority owner of Quantinuum, a leading quantum computing company).