Will OpenAI be the Yahoo! of the AI Era?
The CNN Fear and Greed Index hit “Extreme Fear” territory this week—or what you might call full-blown panic territory. Yet Brent Donnelly found something different when he surveyed investors…
I recently sat down with Brent, who runs Spectra Markets and is one of the sharpest currency traders I know. His investor survey revealed a market that’s repricing risk rather than fleeing from it entirely.
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Brent argues that we’re watching the zero-revenue AI plays and debt-heavy infrastructure names get hammered while companies with actual cash flows hold up better. The pivot point came in late October with Meta’s earnings report. Meta shared the same message it had in July: AI capex will be higher than expected. But in July the stock ripped. And in October, the stock sold off on the same message. That’s not about the company—it’s a shift in investor psychology.
Brent’s survey found that 65% of respondents would rather short OpenAI at a $500 billion valuation on a three-year time horizon than go long. Think about that. Most believe AI is a bubble, but they don’t think it’s topped yet.
I pressed Brent on what happens when OpenAI’s current $20/month subscription model can’t support its capital requirements. His answer involves looking back at the search engine wars of 1998-2003. AltaVista led in 1998. Yahoo and AOL dominated in 1999. Google didn’t take over until 2003. The ultimate AI winner might not be the current leader, and the market knows it.
We also talked about trading currencies during the government shutdown—which Brent describes as “pretty horrible.” Currency traders depend on US economic data, and that data stopped flowing. Even worse, when it resumes, it will be polluted by shutdown effects well into 2026.
In our interview, you’ll also hear:
Brent’s explanation for Warren Buffett’s recent bet on Google
How currencies function as automatic stabilizers when economies heat up
Why Brent describes FX speculators as “pilot fish around the shark”
Watch my full interview with Brent Donnelly by clicking here.
You can all read a transcript of our interview here.
Thanks for reading and watching.
Ed D’Agostino
Partner & COO
Ed D’Agostino
Publisher & COO
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I am mostly aligned with the views expressed in these global macro updates. Unfortunately, that's not the case with this one. I sense an underlying political bias based on several assumptive views of the guest. As an example, his belief that our allied relationships are true to the general sense of the word and not heavily influenced by American largesse. The Canadian relationship in particular, which more closely resembles that of the heavily lopsided symbiosis of pilot fish to shark. Fear, ego and greed are three primary motivators deeply embedded in human psyche. I would suggest they are the primary drivers of our allied relationships as well. We are talking other nations/cultures and believes here. Not the lifelong buddy next door.
Additionally, I am struggling to process 20 trillion dollars of committed investments into America with a capital flight scenario. Isn't this just the difference between investing and trading? It looks a little like confirmational bias when you start comparing apples to oranges in order to make a point of permanent damage caused by recent administration decisions to level the trade landscape. Had to exit this interview halfway through. I think the views expressed here were not macro at all.
How can your focus be so far off?
Entities offering $20 a month subscriptions (or even free for the best one, Grok) to the general public, have absolutely NOTHING to do with the value of AI to International corporate and national security entities .
Can't you tell the difference between what, just for instance, Palantir has and will continue to do for businesses and intelligence services?
All the while you are trying to justify the volatility we've seen recently, the Big Traders are loving it and buying up the benefits of their machinations.
Ferraris at a 25% discount because one month of manufactured negativity by the very people whose lifestyle requires them know how to manipulate new$? And you don't see the ruse?
CapEx by debt is capitalism 101. You can correlate it with devaluation of companies chronically operating at a loss, but don't try to call it causation for devaluating the ones the pundits don't understand to begin with.
Again I say, listen to Keith-Fitzgerald who actually understands valuation.
Jaksno