Toll-free: (877) 631-6311 | Local: (602) 626-3100 |
Office Closed
.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

Friedman: Germany Has a Bigger Problem Than Refugees


Geopolitical expert George Friedman called Germany “a vulnerable, insecure country” in a bubble that could pop anytime.

Speaking in a Mauldin Economics video interview from Amsterdam, Friedman said the Cologne New Year’s Eve incident confirmed the worst fears of native Europeans: that rare Islamist terrorism incidents will become routine hooliganism.

Germany is caught in a three-way vortex, according to Friedman. Large numbers of immigrants are a huge social challenge in its insular culture.

Furthermore, Germany is tied to a dysfunctional currency and free trade zone whose southern tier is in  Depression-like conditions. Unemployment is over 20% in much of Spain, Italy, Greece, and the Balkan states. Formerly Germany’s best customers, these countries are now angry stepchildren.

Friedman sees a more serious problem, too. Exports account for around 50% of German GDP. No other developed nation depends on exports so much. Germany can’t possibly sustain this, but losing exports will mean losing jobs with unemployment already high for Muslim immigrants and fellow Europeans. 

Like China, Germany needs to shift from exports to internal consumption. This would be difficult even with a stable social order. Without one, the situation is potentially explosive.

Watch the full interview (5:43) below.

Subscribe to This Week in Geopolitics

George Friedman provides unbiased assessment of the global outlook—whether demographic, technological, cultural, geopolitical, or military—in his free publication This Week in Geopolitics. Subscribe now and get an in-depth view of the forces that will drive events and investors in the next year, decade, or even a century from now.

Get in Touch

1417 Sadler Road
PMB 415
Fernandina Beach, FL 32034

Toll-free: (877) 631-6311
Local: (602) 626-3100

Copyright © 2022 Mauldin Economics. All rights reserved.