BY MAULDIN ECONOMICS
Geopolitical expert George Friedman called Germany “a vulnerable, insecure country” in a bubble that could pop anytime.
Speaking in a Mauldin Economics video interview from Amsterdam, Friedman said the Cologne New Year’s Eve incident confirmed the worst fears of native Europeans: that rare Islamist terrorism incidents will become routine hooliganism.
Germany is caught in a three-way vortex, according to Friedman. Large numbers of immigrants are a huge social challenge in its insular culture.
Furthermore, Germany is tied to a dysfunctional currency and free trade zone whose southern tier is in Depression-like conditions. Unemployment is over 20% in much of Spain, Italy, Greece, and the Balkan states. Formerly Germany’s best customers, these countries are now angry stepchildren.
Friedman sees a more serious problem, too. Exports account for around 50% of German GDP. No other developed nation depends on exports so much. Germany can’t possibly sustain this, but losing exports will mean losing jobs with unemployment already high for Muslim immigrants and fellow Europeans.
Like China, Germany needs to shift from exports to internal consumption. This would be difficult even with a stable social order. Without one, the situation is potentially explosive.
Watch the full interview (5:43) below.
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