Thoughts from the Frontline

I would have to count myself as a member of the Rick Nelson School of Writers. For the benefit of younger readers and at the risk of dating myself, Rick was the son of Ozzie and Harriet Nelson who went on to become a teen singing idol and one of my favorites as a kid.

Faith is an interesting thing. "The substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen," said Paul. Invisible though it may be, faith makes men do things that all the facts in the world, lined end upon end, could not provoke them to do.

This week I want to welcome 500 or so new readers, many at the suggestion of my old friend and sushi partner, Tony Sagami. Lately we have been getting a lot of referrals from readers and other investment writers, and I am grateful for the growth. I do spend a lot of time researching and writing this letter. It is nice to have someone recommend my writing to a friend or colleague.

Is the stock market the Little Engine That Could? Have I blown it when I suggested you get out a few weeks ago as the Dow rises another 7% and the NASDAQ is up 10% since then and 30% since the recent bottom? Am I early or am I simply wrong? Is there something really different this time?

In today's e-letter I want to briefly give you an overview of the hedge fund and private offering industry and to show some of you how you may be eligible to participate in this investment arena. If you know what and where to ask, you can get information on private offerings, such as hedge funds, which may be of great interest to you.

Today we area going to address two topics. The second will be what the numbers tell us about where the economy is headed. But first, I want to go back to a letter I wrote a few weeks ago. In it, I suggested you get out of the stock market, as the data I am looking at suggests the market is due for a serious drop. That did generate a few negative responses, though not as many as I would have thought. Most were thoughtful comments. But last week, after a discussion with my good friend Gary Halbert of ProFutures, I realized I need to do a better job of giving you my rationale. Making such a serious statement needs more thoughtful analysis than I did in that letter. I sometimes forget that you might not be taking notes on my pearls of wisdom, so I should have reviewed the reasons for the call. I have touched on most of these points over the last year, so I will not go into great detail, but let me line up the dominoes and see which way you want to push them. I will also make a case as to why I could be wrong.

Have we seen the bottom? Is it onward and upward? As I start this e-letter, the S&P and DOW are trying to top their recent highs. Will the S&P go through the 1250 resistance level? Is my short trade in jeopardy? Is it time to become a bull? I will become bullish once again, but not yet, fellow traveler. While I cannot see around the Curve In The Road, I can read the warning signs. They keep telling us to watch out for bear traps.

Thanks for all the kind emails about my stomach problems of last Friday. I felt much better this weekend, at least well enough to begin to actually help my beleaguered wife with our house move which will culminate this weekend. Now let's see if I can recover from the bad neck pains due to the whiplash the bond markets have been giving us the last few weeks.

* I must correct an egregious typo in last week's letter. (And no, it was not my awkward use of prepositions.) I wrote: The economy will recover in the second quarter, and indeed it may be the 4th quarter before we see a turn-around. The software gremlins somehow removed the word NOT from that sentence. It should have read: The economy will *NOT* recover in the second quarter, and indeed it may be the 4th quarter before we see a turn-around. Big difference, and I apologize for that confusion, and thank the many readers who pointed it out. We are finally getting the bear market rally I have be writing about and hoping for. At least I think it is a bear market rally. Those who are buying this run must see something else in their data than I do. Let me bluntly state my case as to what you should do.

We are finally getting the bear market rally I have be writing about and hoping for. At least I think it is a bear market rally. Those who are buying this run must see something else Profiting From Greenspan and His Magic Rate Cuts:

This is an important e-letter. I have thought long and worked hard on it. Part two, which will offer some investment possibilities, will come next week.

Since I wrote the last e-letter about my belief that we are now in a total bear market, the Dow has collapsed another 8%. The NASDAQ is down more. In this issue I want to follow up on some questions, review some previous important predictions and offer some advice. Also, we are going to follow up on high yield bonds and our sector models. I will make an effort to be brief with so much in our hopper.