The World Isn't Ending

When Germany changes, the world changes.

Stalemate is not an option. The costs will be felt.

What happens next is simple to name and hard to measure.

The United States will reportedly be telling other countries they must pick sides in the artificial intelligence race with China.

China is making considerable and rapid progress.

50,000 people, 48 hours. How did this happen?

US-Mexico border cities are primed for explosive growth.

What happens in Hormuz does not stay in Hormuz.

I had intended to write about Japan today, with 10-year JGB yields hitting 2.9% last week—the highest since September 1996—and the yen hanging around a 40-year low of 162 to the dollar.

How a soccer suspension became a sovereignty story...

This marks our 10th issue. By now, hopefully you have a sense that I’m rarely glib or overconfident in my analysis. I develop scenarios rather than make forecasts, and I prize nuance over the black-and-white “certainty” that algorithms reward.

Russia cannot outrun basic math forever.