Thoughts from the Frontline

“Crisis” is an overused word. Actual crises are those rare times when we are on the knife edge of disaster. It’s not a crisis when a bank fails, or Congress can’t agree on a budget. Those are annoyances (unless it's your bank). While not good, they don’t spell immediate catastrophe.

Business media is famous for propagating buzzwords and phrases, especially if they produce more clicks. The latest is Artificial Intelligence. It’s everywhere and is now a fixture in earnings calls, too. Every CEO is getting asked how AI will fit into or affect their company. It’s not quite as bad as every CEO trying to figure out how to make their company a “dot com” in 1998–1999, but almost.

We often talk about technology’s influence on the economy. After the Strategic Investment Conference, though, I’ve decided that isn’t strong enough. It’s more correct to say technology is the economy. But when I use the word technology here, I'm not talking about the big, nifty eight tech companies that dominate today’s stock market. I'm talking more about the entire scope of technological advances over the past 300+ years. None of our economy today is possible without those advances.

This year’s Strategic Investment Conference is wrapped up, but it’s not over. We spent five days thinking the unthinkable. I, for one, will continue not just thinking about it but meditating on it. I believe we got some serious insight into this decade’s fin de siècle. I’ve dubbed it The Great Reset. Others have different terms. Regardless, the implications and consequences are beginning to show themselves.

World economic growth is slowing. That’s so obvious, very few will disagree. I suppose there are people out there predicting imminent 1990s-like expansion, but they are few and far between. If recession begins soon, it will be the most anticipated one in history.

The week we’ve been waiting for is here. The Strategic Investment Conference starts Monday, and we have a jam-packed schedule.

Back before clocks went digital, you could say “a stopped clock is right twice a day” and even youngsters would know what you meant. A mechanism could be nonfunctional but occasionally correct.

Spotting trend changes is the key to economic forecasting. They don’t happen often. Most of the time, this year will be similar to last year. The pace varies but the overall trend continues… until it doesn’t.

“Thinking the Unthinkable.” What does that phrase bring to mind? To me it suggests a situation that has become so stressed you are forced to consider undesirable solutions.

Remember when banks were small? Those old enough to have a bank account in the 1970s should. Back then, most people did their banking with a locally owned institution, often the First National Bank of (Your Town).

Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?

“There’s an old saying: Whenever the Fed hits the brakes, someone goes through the windshield,” said Michael Feroli, chief economist at J.P. Morgan. “You just never know who it’s going to be.” (The New York Times, March 16, 2023)