Thoughts from the Frontline

Then you better start swimmin' Or you'll sink like a stone For the times they are a-changin' —Bob Dylan, "The Times They Are A-Changin'"

Last week, I introduced you to my friend of 20+ years, Keith Fitz-Gerald of Keith Fitz-Gerald Research. As I mentioned, I recently signed up for his Morning! 5 With Fitz free research email, and I'm enjoying it immensely.

Financial crises are really about trust. They tend to occur when people lose trust in assets, institutions, or people they had thought trustworthy. Whether the lost trust was a consequence of the crisis, or its cause is a different question. But they do seem to go together.

Early this week, with the severe inverted yield curve and other signals flashing recession, I planned to use this letter to delve into the data. Then Thursday’s CPI data convinced markets to blow the all-clear whistle.

Historically speaking, this phase of life we call “retirement” is a new concept. The idea you could stop working at a certain age was unknown until quite recently. People worked as long as they physically could, then died quickly unless they had family or servants to care for them. That was normal and accepted.

I literally grew up in the oil patch: Wise County, Texas, 60 or 70 miles northwest of Fort Worth in a little town called Bridgeport. The two first-generation Greek immigrant brothers who became Mitchell Energy talked old man Christie into funding Christie, Mitchell and Mitchell and they drilled (hundreds?) of natural gas wells which they eventually sold to an Illinois utility. This was in the 1950s and ‘60s.

Sandpiles can be fun. Nothing beats taking kids to the beach (or being a kid!) and watching their creativity blossom into all kinds of magical shapes. The problem with sand construction is it doesn’t last. I have it on good authority that building your house on the sand probably won’t end well.

By now it should be clear Federal Reserve leaders intend to keep hiking until the economy breaks. Their recent speeches and interviews all underline this. Specifically, they want to reduce the strong consumer demand that has been keeping goods and service prices elevated. Interest rate hikes are merely a tool they have to that end—and not a very efficient one, either.

Big problems usually begin as small problems. We see that in nature, where small disturbances become hurricanes, and we see it in the economy, too. So, it shouldn’t surprise us if the economic disturbances of the last years compound into something bigger.

We were a bit preoccupied here in Puerto Rico this week. Hurricane Fiona decided to camp out over the island, bringing mind-boggling amounts of rain. I am sure you have seen the flooding pictures. The entire island lost power and much of it is still down. Our oversized diesel generator, which I thought quite expensive but decided to get anyway, proved a good investment.

Remember when inflation was going to be transitory? Good times. I was in that camp myself early on, as were some serious analysts I greatly respect (and still do). Then the data began to show core inflation would be stickier than expected, and I turned in my Team Transitory T-shirt. I appreciate people who admit their mistakes. We all make them.

Politicians talk about “jobs, jobs, jobs” because a steady income keeps people happy and (mostly) voting for incumbents. Carville once told us, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and it always has been. Economies in recession are usually bad for those in power.